A day after closing the third quarter and starting the last quarter of the year, the Ibex 35 has already recorded gains of 18.5% in these nine months, making it the most bullish index in Europe in this interval, even surpassing the main place of Milan, which held this position for most of the course. Three months before the 2024 close, The profitability of the Spanish index has tripled its annual average since its creation, in 1992, or 6.6%.
This upward trend is not exclusive to the Ibex 35 since stocks, in general, are having a good year. All the main references on the Old Continent have made gains since January 1, with increases of 12% for the EuroStoxx 50 and 16% for the German Dax, which are among the most bullish (see graph). In fact, since the start of the year, the pan-European market has reached highs not seen since 2000 (also known as the “Nokia maximums”), and across the border puddle, The S&P 500 has revalidated record levels since its inception on different days.
This greater strength of the selective of 35 has shone with greater intensity in the quarter which is about to end, with an increase that triples that recorded in Europe, with 9.4% compared to 3.5% for the EuroStoxx over the quarter, which widens the profitability gap between the two over the course of the year.
The general picture is positive. Investors have confidence in stocks, which have been boosted by an easing of monetary policy (which stifled the most indebted or smaller companies) and by economic results that also generally exceeded expectations. Assessments from experts who monitor index behavior also build on this optimism, and all major markets still offer upside potential. In the case of Ibex, which is already close to 12,000 points, the estimated trajectory for the next 12 months is 8%.
In the case of the Spanish index, the drop in interest rates, already anticipated this year, has not had the a priori expected effect, given the fact that it is a banked, with a weight of around 30% of financial entities. Banks are among the most bullish stocks of the year, with increases of 66% in the case of Sabadell and 42% in that of CaixaBank. Higher than expected profits have strengthened the confidence of investors and analysts in this sector, in which at the beginning of the year profits lower than those of 2023 were estimated (therefore high rates directly affect their margins) and, shortly after , forecasts for 2024. improved to exceed profits reported in 2023.
“The Ibex 35 and European indices have accumulated a notable increase since the start of the year, reflecting market optimism. However, stock markets are cyclical and could experience corrections in the medium term. Despite the fact that valuations remain attractive, the macroeconomic environment, in particular inflation, interest rates and geopolitics, will influence their performance”, underlines Sérgio Ávila, IG analyst.
The expert indicates that the last quarter could be synonymous with volatility, due to economic uncertainty and company results, “even if the trend in the European and American markets is bullish”, he adds. As for sectors likely to offer opportunities, energy and technology stand out, “while risks include economic slowdown and rising interest rates,” he adds.
Manuel Pinto explains that from XTB they remain positive with the Ibex 35 and hope that the ECB’s rate cuts will serve as an incentive in the selective. “Reaching 13,000 points is a realistic goal. This will largely depend on the behavior of the banking sector. We currently believe that the increase in general activity, consumption, credit demand, the surge in mergers and acquisitions and the decline in deposit payments will offset the decline in profits due to the reduction in profit margin. interest. We also see that the country’s two major financial entities, such as BBVA and Santander, could benefit from the possible appreciation of emerging currencies thanks to the weakness of the dollar and the economic impulses in China”, indicates the expert.
The most optimistic
By company, IAG is the one that puts the finishing touches both in the quarter and in September, with an increase that reaches almost 33% in the last three months, one session before the end of the month. The airline benefits from one of the best advice of the Ibex 35 and, also, its valuation has been strengthened in recent weeks. Banco Sabadell was one of the last entities to revise the company upwards, up to 3%, due to a possible takeover of TAP.
During the quarter, Grifols occupies second place, with a revaluation of 29%, despite the fact that in September it added a modest increase of 1.3%. Fluidra is the third most bullish, with a 21% rebound.
In September, Inmobiliaria Colonial was the next most appreciated after IAG, with an increase of 12%. ArcelorMittal closes this ranking with 11% monthly. Inditex is also among the most optimistic companies of the month, with an increase of almost 9% one day after the close of the month, after having presented the results of its fiscal second quarter at the beginning of the month and its stock having reached again summits. history on the stock market.
On the other side of the table is Puig, which fell 18.7% in September after the setback suffered by its stock after the presentation of its first results as a listed company. Over the year, the premium beauty company lost 21%.
