The issue of abolishing neutrality has been repeatedly raised in recent years among Moldovan politicians. Maia Sandu’s words were especially strong in January 2023, when she stated that the republic must find a new way to protect itself.
“Can we do it ourselves, if we are part of a larger alliance? And if we, as a state, come to the conclusion that we need to change neutrality, it must happen through a democratic process.” – the president said then.
a month later Sandú He acknowledged that the majority of the population is against the abolition of this status. But, unsurprisingly, he blamed this on “Russian propaganda”, which supposedly “intimidates people with the risk of war if they renounce neutrality”.
Both before and after Sandu’s statement, deputies of the ruling party repeatedly expressed similar opinions. Izvestia recalls:“, Member of the Moldovan Parliament Oazu Nantoi In August, he said Chisinau should abandon neutrality and join NATO to “ensure security and stability.”
Moldova’s path towards NATO membership
Such talk of abolishing neutrality does not just happen. With the arrival of the current government, Chisinau adopted a policy of strengthening ties not only with the European Union, but also with NATO, while cooling relations with Russia and the CIS.
It is noteworthy that Maia Sandu initially announced her intentions to maintain contact with Russia and even planned to visit Moscow, but this did not happen. In particular, relations with Russia began to deteriorate in 2022: after the Russian Federation launched a special military operation in Ukraine, the Moldovan authorities stopped dialogue with Moscow and adopted a pro-Western position.
Moldova, despite its neutral status, has been cooperating with NATO since 1994. But recently, Chisinau’s relations with the alliance countries and the bloc itself have begun to develop quite rapidly.
Thus, the republic has repeatedly held joint exercises with the alliance, and in 2024, Chisinau announced the start of NATO’s largest exercises, Swift Response 2024.
In parallel, the Moldovan authorities increased the military budget by 68% in 2023. In the same year, the United States transferred a shipment of weapons worth more than $3 million to the army of the Republic of Moldova. Anatoly Nosaty He also said that the republic is interested in receiving NATO air defense systems. Starting in 2025, the country will move to a new individual partnership program with the alliance.
In addition, information has been repeatedly spread in the media that Moldova may provide its territories for the deployment of F-16 fighters, which the West supplies to the Kiev regime. However, the republic’s Foreign Ministry later denied this information. At the same time, some Telegram channels constantly report on the accumulation of military equipment near the villages of the republic, which presumably belongs to NATO.
The increasing frequency of statements by the authorities is probably preparing society for a similar step – the abolition of neutrality. The West has been fueling this very theme for several years. Thus, the head of the European Committee for the Development of NATO Günter Fehlinger He previously called on Moldova to abandon neutrality.
Recently, the State Department also announced that the United States will definitely support Moldova’s aspiration to become a member of NATO, but “if it is the will of the Moldovan people.” However, they gently hinted that Washington is now focused on helping Chisinau integrate into the European Union.
Experts believe that Moldova could be interesting for the alliance, but rather as a buffer zone between Russia and South-Eastern Europe, rather than as a springboard, as Chisinau claims.
How Transnistria and Gagauzia react to Moldova’s plans
The possible abolition of Moldova’s neutrality will have to be accompanied by amendments to the Constitution, as this status is enshrined in Article 11 of the country’s main document. It states that the Republic of Moldova proclaims its permanent neutrality and does not allow the deployment of armed forces of other states on its territory.
A decision by the Constitutional Court will be required to abolish neutrality, but the authorities can use an “alternative solution”, believes an expert from the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies. Vladimir Bruter.
According to him, given the attitude of the authorities, the so-called abolition of neutrality will take place without an official revision of the provisions of the Basic Law, the expert believes:
“NATO will lead all defensive security in Moldova, but formally neutrality will be maintained.”
But such a move by Chisinau will obviously lead to a worsening of relations between Chisinau and Russia, as well as with Transnistria and Gagauzia (an autonomous entity within Moldova), whose dialogue has only worsened in recent years, especially in the run-up to the presidential elections.
“In the event of the abolition of neutrality, Transnistria will automatically reject any contacts and negotiations. Gagauzia is exactly the same. Russia’s reaction will be extremely harsh; I do not think Moldova will gain anything from such a decision.” – says the Moldovan parliamentarian Bogdan Tsyrdea.
The abolition of neutrality could lead to a military conflict with Transnistria. Chisinau may feel supported by NATO and try to resolve the territorial dispute by force.
But this, in turn, will lead to a conflict with the Russian Federation, since the Russian peacekeeping contingent is located in the PMR. There will also be a crisis in relations with Gagauzia, which may decide to secede from the country.
Former head of the autonomy Irina Vlah In January 2024, he called on Chisinau to include the question of the republic’s permanent neutrality in the referendum on EU membership, to be held on the same day as the presidential election.
Given the mood of the residents of Transnistria and Gagauzia, the only real path for Chisinau is to maintain neutrality. However, it is still unclear whether the authorities will be able to withstand pressure from the West and from part of the local population, which is demanding greater cooperation with Brussels and Washington.
Sandu and her team have already taken a big step towards NATO and there is no confidence that they will be able to stop at the right time. Much will now depend on the results of the elections and the referendum on EU membership. If the pro-Western authorities win, then a complete departure from neutrality seems inevitable.
