We have already had the opportunity in previous articles to say that we are de facto in a Third World War, even if we describe it as “unconventional” insofar as a new global geopolitical order is in dispute, it does not There are no two camps that dispute it. frontally, as was the case during the two previous major competitions. The atomic weapon and the reality of a DMA – “Mutual Assured Destruction” – between competitors demand it. This is why new “multipolar” geopolitical order agreed between China and Russia in Beijing in February 2022 is decided in countries (poles) located in different places and with various intermediaries for the occasion.
The war in Ukraine is a war between The United States and Russia with NATO and Zelensky as instruments Americans, Zelensky providing the victims and the United States providing the dollars and weapons. And NATO supports a country that is not even a member of the Atlantic Alliance. It is a war of attrition promoted by the United States which has not passively resigned itself to losing its global hegemony, until now, reached after the disappearance of the USSR.
We have already commented that the creation of AUKUS, “NATO of the Pacific” in 2021, precipitated the bilateral Beijing Treaty a few months later and that immediately motivated the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. What is at stake is the zone of influence of the United States and Russia in this area of Eastern Europe, which in turn will demarcate the zone of influence between the United States and China in the strategic area of the Indo-Pacific. with Taiwan on the immediate horizon.
In this scenario, the immediate US presidential elections…November 5— play a decisive role in the evolution of the war with Russia given that a Trump victory — publicly confronted with deep state— would mean a negotiated end, with the Crimean peninsula – and perhaps the Donbass territories – officially for Russia, in exchange for peace with a neutrality status for Ukraine outside the Atlantic Alliance.
If Kamala Harris wins this negotiated ending does not seem assured in the short term, with a risk of escalation if Zelensky sought to obtain concrete successes to achieve his ends. a better negotiating position, which is more illusory than real at present. It should not be forgotten that in the spring of 2022, shortly after the start of the war, with Erdogan in Ankara and NATO member Turkey as mediator, an agreement was reached, which was prevented by the United States. United and United Kingdom.
In the other pole After the war, in the Middle East, Israel completely defeated Hamas in Gaza and now wants to do the same with Hezbollah in Lebanon, in order to eliminate the terrorist threat that has existed for decades and threaten your security on one side and the other of their State. The blow to its charismatic leader, Hasan Nasrallah, in the Shiite neighborhood of Beirut, means a very nuanced blow to their moraleby demonstrating Israel’s very high military capacity, which could be the prelude to a ground operation in southern Lebanon similar to that carried out in Gaza to operationally neutralize Hezbollah.
Currently, it is already acting in Yemen to do the same with the Houthi militiaalso declared enemies of the State of Israel. This is a third front in the East Pole where the Iranian Islamic Republic fights for its zone of influence, against the American ally through the three terrorist organizations which depend on it, established until now in Gaza, southern Lebanon and Yemen. It remains to be seen how Iran responds to this development in the war, since a frontal war between Iran and Israel would be on the verge of a real DCE. taking into account nuclear capacity of the two potential suitors. Of course, in the current situation, the risk of a frontal military escalation between the two declared enemies seems too close not to express serious concerns that “human error” could trigger a Third World War that cannot no longer be considered “unconventional”. .”” but precisely as conventional as it is apocalyptic. The world is in danger because of the atony of a society mired in the “frog syndrome”.
