THE Vice President Kamala Harris is in the lead during the month of September in the general average of surveys with two points ahead of the former US President Donald Trump. Just like Hillary Clinton in September 2016. The Democrat lost resoundingly in these presidential elections, although she won the popular vote, for not taking into account the electoral college system. Can what happened in 2016 happen again? YeahAnd for the same reasons: Trump can win the presidential elections by winning the Swing States (undecided states)thanks to the Electoral College system, even if it loses in number and percentage of votes as in 2016. If the presidential elections took place this Tuesday, Trump would win the White House with 281 electoral votes. Harris would have only 257. This year, the key is Pennsylvania, where Harris is not winning over working-middle-class voters. He was unable to present them with a concrete economic plan.
The Electoral College system states that each candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House. It divides each state into a certain number of electoral votes, based on, among other factors, its population. Rewards the winner of each state, who receives all the votes in that state according to the rule of winner takes all (winner takes all). For this reason, Trump is running a campaign this year focused on Swing States, which totals 94 electoral votes, the same as in 2016. His message is based on the economy, immigration and security, which is what matters to middle-class voters in these states. Meanwhile, Harris is unable to present concrete proposals. This has put Trump ahead in the polls in four of those states and in the overall polling average in all seven. He has an advantage in Arizona (11 electoral votes), North Carolina (16 electoral votes)Georgia (16) and Pennsylvania (19). Harris in Nevada (6), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10). On the other hand, the Democrats do not have everything with them in the last two states mentioned. Trump already won it in 2016 and could win it again on November 5, Election Day, despite the polls.
Electoral college system
As stated previously, Trump or Kamala Harris need 270 of the 538 electoral votes that make up the electoral map to win the White House. Each state is divided into a certain number of electoral votes. This figure is obtained from the sum of two fixed electoral votes (the two senators from each state in the Upper House) and a number of electoral votes proportional to the population of each state (equal to the number of electoral districts of each state represented in the Lower House). It is necessary to add three electoral votes from the capital Washingtonwhich has no representation in the House of Representatives, established by the 23rd Amendment.
The winner of each state is decided by the system winner takes all (all votes from each state are needed). Thus, undecided states become important, such as Arizona (11 electoral votes), Nevada (six electoral votes), North Carolina (12), Georgia (16), Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15 ) and Wisconsin (10). Trump received 219 electoral voteswhich come from the sum of traditionally Republican states. While, Kamala Harris has 215 Democrats. Instead, Trump broke the Blue wall (Democratic stronghold states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin). He won Pennsylvania, according to polls released on Tuesday. He is leading in polls in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Therefore, he would dye the map red again like he did in 2016 and win the White House with 281 electoral votes.
Trump-Harris vote percentage
According to the overall poll average, Donald Trump would make it possible to achieve the 47.3%. Kamala Harris we would have finished with 49.1%. A margin very similar to that of 2016, when Trump won the election despite a loss in percentage of votes.
Trump-Harris electoral votes
If each candidate is assigned the states in which he leads the polls, Donald Trump would get 281 electoral votes. Kamala Harris would get 257.
Information collected from general polls dated October 1, 2024 from Morning Consult, Rasmussen Reports, Quinnipiac, CNN and Swing State Polls.
Trump-Clinton popular vote
asset won 62,984,828 votes. Hillary Clinton got 65,853,514 votes.
Trump-Clinton vote percentage
Donald Trump reached the 46.1%. Hillary Clinton we would have finished with 48.2%.
Trump-Clinton electoral vote
The electoral vote is the most importantthanks to the system winner takes all (the winner of each state wins all of that state’s electoral votes). It takes 270 to get to the White House.
Donald Trump won the elections with 304 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton lost the election by receiving 227 votes..
Why did Clinton lose?
The general opinion is that Hillary Clinton fell short in the states of Rust belt (Rust Belt, in the manufacturing states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota). The reality is that Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania because Donald Trump successfully mobilized working-middle-class voters in rural areas and small towns, who voted for him in droves..
Clinton followed the usual Democratic formula to win in Pennsylvania: obtain significant margins on cities of Philadelphia And Pittsburgh and predominate by a narrower margin in the suburban counties around Philadelphia. Instead, this strategy has become obsolete, due to Trump’s ability to mobilize the working middle class.
