After Spain’s worst DANA of the century, many wonder if due diligence was done at red alert level disseminated by AEMET, if they were issued with sufficient notice or if the population is not aware of the dangerousness and destruction parameters of these codes.
The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) creates four alert levels against adverse weather phenomena with a color code “in order to offer the most appropriate information possible and in harmony with common European criteria, based on the possible achievement of certain thresholds”.
A color code that you need to know to warn the population of fatal natural disasters like those that occurred in Valencia and Castile-La Mancha due to DANA which hit different populations.
AEMET defines as undesirable phenomena weather events “likely to produce, directly or indirectly, harm to people or considerable material damage”.
Adverse atmospheric events
The National Plan for Forecasting and Monitoring Undesirable Weather Phenomena (Meteoalerta) aims to provide the best and most up-to-date information possible on anticipated adverse atmospheric events, up to 72 hours in advanceas well as maintaining timely information on their progress, once their development has started.
AEMET considers an unfavorable meteorological phenomenon alert to “rain, snowfall, winds, storms, maximum temperaturesminimum temperatures, coastal phenomena, suspended dust, avalanches, gales in the Cantabrian area and northern Galicia, Rigasgas in the Balearic Islands, fogs, thaws, heatwaves, cold waves and tropical storms.
The meteorological agency explains that the objective of these four basic levels is to “offer the most appropriate information possible and in harmony with common European criteriafour basic levels are envisaged, based on the possible achievement of certain thresholds.
Alert Levels
These thresholds were established with climatological criteria close to the notion of “rarely or very infrequently” and adversity, depending on the threat they may represent to the population. The names, meanings and recommendations to the population of the levels are described as follows by AEMET:
- Green: There is no weather risk. Weather conditions are not expected to have any significant impacts, although they may be minor or local in nature.
- YELLOW: There is no meteorological risk for the general population, although it exists for certain specific activities.
- Orange: There is a significant meteorological risk (unusual weather phenomena with a certain degree of danger for usual activities).
- Red: The meteorological risk is extreme (unusual weather phenomena, of exceptional intensity and with a very high level of risk for the population).
Recommendations to the population
These alert levels are accompanied by recommendations from AEMET to the population at three levels.
- YELLOW: BE CAREFUL. Stay informed with the latest weather forecasts. Some outdoor activities may be disrupted.
- Orange: BE PREPARED. Take precautions and stay informed of the latest weather forecasts. Regular and outdoor activities may be modified.
- Red: Take preventive measures and ACT according to the instructions of the authorities. Stay informed with the latest weather forecasts. Normal activities may be seriously disrupted. Do not travel unless absolutely necessary.
Alert issuance times
Likewise, the agency describes the schedules The preferential deadlines for issuing notices are at the official time of the peninsula:
- 7:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.: notice for today (D)
- 10:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.: alerts for tomorrow (D+1) and the day after tomorrow (D+2)
- 9:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m.: review of all reviews
- 9:00 p.m. to 11:50 p.m.: advance to D+3
AEMET specifies that this is only “privileged issue periodsThus, depending on the situation and if the conditions for generating warnings are met, they can be issued at any other time.
Add a new review
However, after the DANA of a few days ago and its consequences, some experts are considering the add another level of black warning. This is what the meteorologist said Jorge Olcinaexpert in climatology and former president of the Association of Spanish Geographers (AGE)
A change that has been caused, as Olcina explains in statements to EFE, “the DANAS cause more quantity and intensity of precipitation than a Caribbean hurricane or an Asian typhoon, but also less wind” .
For the former president of Spanish geographers, the values collected in recent hours in the province of Valencia, around 500 liters per square meter in just six hours, are “something monumental” which can be explained by the high temperature of the Mediterranean . , because “it transfers a lot of energy to the cloud systems and generates these storms so energetic that they cause the water to fall in a torrent.”
More than 20 degrees in the Mediterranean
The head also of the Climatology Laboratory of the University of Alicante (UA) added that The temperature of the Mediterranean near the southeast of the peninsula is “still” around 23 and 24 degrees Celsius.“when above 20, it’s already dangerous.”
“This temperature brings a lot of calories to the air and in the sky it generates these very energetic clouds” which favor these rainy episodes when they coincide with a DANA atmospheric situation.
After emphasizing that this is another “proof” of the process of climate change, the expert pointed out that an important fact is that if until recently such a situation was repeated every 15 years, now it repeats itself every five, and he recalled that the last one a similar episode occurred in September 2019 with the epicenter in the south of the Valencian Community, in the Vega Baja region of Alicante, where there were already several deaths and significant material damage.
Climate and emissions
“The return periods have been shortened due to the increase in the heat of the Mediterranean Sea,” reaffirmed Olcina, for whom “an uncontrolled process” of climate change continues with emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere, which, he stressed. , in 2023, they set another record on the planet.
Another reflection from Olcina was that when the National Meteorological Agency (AEMET) gives a red warning and, therefore, the Civil Protection issues an alert of the same color, as he said, this happened on the night of Monday to Tuesday in the case of Valencia, “you can’t leave the house”.
Go from red to black
Olcina warns that a phenomenon like this “we have already seen it in the DANA of Vega Baja in 2019 and now again, but people want to continue living their usual lives”, he lamented, in response to which it would be necessary to make “a reflection and even change the colors to start putting a warning and a “black” alert so that it is understood that life is in danger.
He proposed that more work be done on “risk education” among the population to emphasize that when a red notice is issued, it is because it is based on a scientific argument and that people “have big stakes.”
