The Republican Nikki Haley, Donald Trump’s competitor for several weeks During his party’s primaries, he declared just after his withdrawal: “The first to change candidates will be the one who wins the election.“. Indeed, Trump and Biden were both terrible optionswith a very low rating and obvious age and temperament issues.
For at least a month, Haley seemed to be right.: Biden gives way to Harris And Democrats have begun to soar in the polls. From two or three points below, they have gone to two or three points above at the national level. The problem is that expectations seem to have come to a sudden halt.
Actually, a rebound effect may occur… At least that’s what Donald Trump believes, who has managed to resist the whirlwind without leaving the electoral race. It’s not for nothing that if we start counting the votes by state, which are the ones that count, there are exactly 50% for each of the candidates.
After an attack, a change of rival, a questionable vice presidential election and a highly publicized Democratic convention with media stars of all kinds, Trump remains below one percentage point In Pennsylvania And Arizona. He also hasn’t been claimed much in Michigan and is still ahead in North Carolina and Georgia.
The Democratic Party It took so long to make the decision to obstruct Joe Biden to run for re-electionDespite all the evidence, the only thing he has accomplished in this month of “honeymoon” with the polls is to equalize the results.
He was behind in all key states and now he is ahead Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan And Snowfall. NOW, we are talking about minimal differenceswhich are subject to sampling error.
RFK Jr.’s Disputed Vote
More specifically, according to the Real Clear Politics portal, There would be five key states practically linkedwith a difference of less than one percentage point in the sum of the surveys.
The situation, obviously, andIt’s much better for Harris than for Biden just a month ago, but you can’t get lost: Assuming he wins in Michigan and Wisconsin, where the average advantage is close to two points, still has to win Pennsylvania.
If you don’t win this state, where Biden won four years ago by just 80,000 votesthe thing It’s starting to get very complicatedIt is true that Harris managed to bring into the conflict three states that Biden had lost: Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
That said, if he doesn’t win Pennsylvania, He would need to win two of those three states to be able to occupy the White House. from January 2025. It is not impossible, but it is unlikely.
If the country’s dynamics make Democratic Party Loses in MidwestWith its industrial workers and blue-voting tradition, the South rarely comes to the rescue. Victory in one area usually leads to decline in the other. It met Trump in 2016 and met Biden again in 2020.
One of the key moves of the past week and perhaps explains why the Democratic convention surge isn’t translating into better poll numbers for Harris. is the retirement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. decisive states and his support for Trump’s candidacy.
Despite the tradition of the surname, the truth is that Many of Kennedy’s assumptions were closer to those of the Holocaust-denying alt-right. than those of Harris’ liberalism with social-democratic connotations.
Kennedy, as a good populist, he had a fairly faithful base that he represented in the investigations around 5 to 6% of voters. If Trump manages to mobilize all these voters, we would speak of a force difficult to counteract.
It is also true that if all these citizens had opted for Kennedy instead of a stronger option like Trump, it would be for a reason and that theory and practice, in certain elections, they almost never go together.
Was Harris Wrong About Shapiro?
In this situation of virtual equality and taking into account the fact that Pennsylvania emerges as key state in final countmany wonder If Josh Shapiro hadn’t been a better option as a vice presidential candidate.
This is precisely the governor of the decisive state, with immense popularity among voters of both parties. It has always been said that Harris and her advisers feared that the profile too pro-Israeli by Shapiro will scare away the votes of the most pro-Palestinian youthBut it remains to be seen exactly how many voters Harris would have lost under Shapiro…and how many she would have gained.
Because the fact is that The election of Tim Walza sarcastic and ironic man, with a background in the armed forces and the aviation industry, wasn’t bad either, at least that’s what his high acceptance rate tells us… but If Harris ultimately gets more votes in Minnesotawhere he had already won the victory, in exchange for the loss of Pennsylvania by a few tenths, he would regret it for the rest of his life.
The Harris-Walz tandem seems to be working well, they seem likeable and determined and are ideal for voters who were going to choose the Democratic option anyway. It remains to be seen How many independents or republicans do they convince?.
First interview with Harris
It remains to be seen also The effect of Kamala Harris’ first interview as presidential candidatein the chain cnn. Will he have dispelled doubts about its economic reliabilityWill he have been convincing in the face of Trump’s attacks? Until now, Harris has enjoyed a curious status as an “outsider” while still being the country’s vice president.
If Trump can reverse this perception and attack his management of these four years, will he do it?will be able to defend everything Biden has done on behalf of your administration? If you succeed, you will have taken a big step forward. Otherwise, the handful of votes that will decide the next president could fall on Trump’s side.
