In the decades to come, Spain will experience a reduction in average precipitationas well as an increase in temperatures and the frequency of heat waves. At effects of climate change Added to this are those of depopulation in certain regions and the globalization of agricultural trade, which affects the entire country, although with a particular impact in certain regions. Specifically, 2,858 Spanish municipalities present, in comparative terms, greater vulnerability to these effectsaccording to the study Beyond ’emptied Spain’: climate change, depopulation and globalization in rural areas of the Social Observatory of the “la Caixa” Foundation.
The researchers Sergio Villamayor-TomasDaniel Gaitán Cremaschi, Beatriz Pierri-Daunt and Leticia Santos de Lima, from the Institute of Environmental Sciences and Technologies of the Autonomous University of Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), and Esteve Corbera, from ICTA-UAB and the Catalan Research Institute i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), have developed a socio-environmental index of vulnerability to climate change, depopulation and agricultural globalization based on data from 27 social and environmental variables which allowed them to classify more than 8,000 Spanish municipalities into one of the following four territorial groups: Spain emptied and economically marginalized; Spain which resists economically, but is drying up; eroded Spain and exporting Spain.
The “four Spains”
The first of these four groups is what the authors called the Spain emptied and economically marginalizedwhich constitutes the most vulnerable group and covers 2,858 municipalities, located mainly in the center of northern Spain (notably the regions of Castilla y León and part of Aragon), which represent 21% of the national territory.
This group includes the areas with the greatest decrease in natural growth rate and where the highest proportion of elderly people per young person is concentrated. It also brings together the highest proportion of small towns (less than 500 inhabitants). From an economic point of view, these are the territories most affected by the drop in prices paid to agricultural producers. Likewise, these are areas in which the lowest presence of registered businesses is concentrated and where social and road infrastructure is poor.
The second group, defined in the study as that of Spain which resists economically, but is drying upincludes 1,112 municipalities distributed in particular in the mountainous massifs and within the perimeter of the first group, and constitutes 13% of the national territory. This territorial cluster also has a high proportion of small towns, municipalities affected by reduced natural population growth and areas with poor road infrastructure. In addition, there is a greater decrease in average annual precipitation. Despite everything, It is here that we find the largest proportion of protected areas and the greatest number of registered businesses.
The third is called by the authors eroded Spain and is made up of 3,198 municipalities spread throughout Spain which represent 54% of the total. These are municipalities located mainly in the regions of Galicia and Asturias, as well as in the center and south of the country. According to the study measurements, this territorial cluster does not present serious socio-economic problemsbut it is the group most affected by wildfires and soil erosion.
The fourth and final group is the one that the authors classify as Exporting Spain, made up of 595 municipalities (5% of Spanish territory), located mostly in very specific enclaves close to coastal areas and large cities. This is the least vulnerable group, according to the parameters analyzed. Nevertheless, the authors emphasize that its particular weakness is linked to exposure to the globalization of agricultural tradegiven that it depends to a greater extent on exports. The authors define the concept of globalization of agricultural trade as the consolidation of a system of food production and consumption dominated by multinational companies, global markets and prices, and based on intensive and highly mechanized production of export products, and in the search for short-term profitability, among other characteristics.
In this last group, the researchers also highlight two particularities: it is the one which relies most on irrigated agriculture and has the lowest proportion of protected areas.
“Municipalities in Spain can be classified according to whether they are more or less vulnerable to climate change, depopulation and globalization.. The degree to which they are affected by specific aspects of these three threats is what allowed us to classify them in the four Spains”, underlined Sergio Villamayor-Tomas, researcher at the Institute of Environmental Sciences and Technologies (ICTA-UAB) and co. – author of the study.
Rural development policies
The authors of the study Beyond ’emptied Spain’: climate change, depopulation and globalization in rural areasof the Social Observatory of the “la Caixa” Foundation, believe that adaptation to climate change, mitigation of depopulation and defense of agricultural income must be accompanied by agricultural policies and more integrated rural development from a socio-environmental point of view.
“After this analysis, there are processes that deserve to continue to be studied, such as the relationship between drought and heatwave, rural abandonment, the disappearance of family farms, the concentration of land in large companies, agricultural intensification and desertification,” underlined ViIlamayor. -Tomas. And he added: “Our analysis alerts us to the need to review CAP aid ([Politique Agricole Commune]) from the point of view of its ability to respond in an integrated manner to environmental and social problems.[PolíticaAgrariaComún)desdeelpuntodevistadesucapacidadparaadressarproblemasambientalesysocialesdemaneraintegrada[PolíticaAgrariaComún)desdeelpuntodevistadesucapacidadparaabordarproblemasambientalesysocialesdemaneraintegrada The integration program for young farmers, for example, contributes to generational change and therefore to mitigate depopulationbut it also promotes a model of large-scale, intensive and mechanized agricultural exploitation, with questionable capacity for adaptation. facing climate change and the volatility of agricultural markets“.
