Will the health of the labor market withstand future budget cuts? It’s not safe. And for good reason: during the past year, three out of every four jobs created were public jobs. Between mid-2023 and mid-2024, the public sector is thus the source of 95,000 new jobs (+ 1.2%), out of a total – public and private combined – of 129,000, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Studies Economics (INSEE).
“Despite a much smaller workforce [on dénombre 21 millions de salariés dans le privé pour 6 millions dans le public, au deuxième trimestre 2024], Public sector employment contributes at least as strongly to overall growth in a year as the private sector.summarizes Vladimir Passeron, head of the INSEE employment and income department. “Public employment has never been so dynamic since the election of Emmanuel Macron in 2017 », observes Mathieu Plane, deputy director of the analysis and forecasting department of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions.
During the two years 2021 and 2022, the progression rate was more moderate (respectively +0.4% and +0.3%). Although detailed data for 2023 is not yet available, INSEE figures show that the active population increased more in 2022 in the state public administration (+ 0.6%) than in the hospital public administration (+ 0.1%) or in local authorities (stability). ).
Another notable point: recruitment is mainly carried out on a contractual and non-statutory basis, sometimes with very short fixed-term contracts. And more than one in five agents working in the public sector now have a contract.
Private sector slowdown
In a context of growing deficit, this increase in public personnel “can alert, estimates Stéphane Colliac, economist at BNP Paribas. But first we must see for what needs these jobs were created. After Covid-19 we changed our perspective and created many positions in health or education ». In the summer of 2020, after the health crisis caused by Covid-19, the Health Ségur generated 15,000 hospital hires. The increase in figures can also be explained, Passeron emphasizes, by the fact that older people remain in their jobs longer due to the pension reform.
The truth is that the relative dynamics of public employment also comes from the slowdown that is occurring in the private sector. Since the summer, employment has barely progressed, and has even fallen slightly in temporary work and construction. “Private employment is more linked to the economic situation than public employment and, therefore, loses more ground” while growth weakens, explains Colliac.
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