If gas transit through Ukraine ceases on January 1, 2025, Slovakia could receive part of the volumes lost from the Turkish flow through Hungary. At least the gas transportation system operators of the two countries agreed to increase the capacity of the interstate interconnector.
Hungarian and Slovak gas transmission network operators FGSZ and Eustream signed amendments to the agreement on the connection to the Vel’ké Zlievce/Balassagyarmat interstate point.
“In accordance with the agreement, the capacity at the connection point will increase from 2.63 billion cubic meters per year to 3.5 billion cubic meters per year in the Hungary-Slovakia direction from gas day on the 2nd October 2024 until Gas Day on March 31, 2025”, – both operators reported.
FGSZ and Eustream noted that increasing the capacity of the interstate interconnector does not require investment from either party. However, they did not specify why this was done.
Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) Alexey Grivach It does not rule out that in this way Slovakia will be insured in the event of a stoppage in the transit of Russian gas from January 1, 2025, when the contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom ceases to be valid.
“The Slovak market is small and can be supplied through Hungary. But its transit importance will apparently be lost in the event that the Ukraine transit is physically completed.” – points out the expert.
With average use of the interconnector on the border between Hungary and Slovakia, this year it will also be able to supply more than 1.1 billion cubic meters per year. This represents more than 46% of Russian gas supplies to Slovakia.
This additional Turkish Stream capacity could be provided by gas pipelines to Hungary via Serbia and Romania. Taking into account that, at least this season, gas can be supplied from a warehouse in Hungary, which is 94% full. It contains more than 6 billion cubic meters.
However, 1.1 billion cubic meters is almost the technically possible limit for additional supplies of Russian gas bypassing Ukraine for consumers receiving gas through Ukrainian transit. An even bigger recipient in this regard is Austria.
In theory, Gazprom can supply LNG from the Portovaya Baltic complex to terminals on the Croatian island of Krk and to Germany, but this is not a solution and the volumes are not the same.
Despite the fact that Slovakia still counts on the preservation of Ukrainian transit.
“When I consider all the risks, I am convinced that transit must be preserved to avoid artificial costs in Central Europe,” the chief executive of Slovakia’s Slovenský plynárenský priemysel (SPP) told Reuters on the sidelines of a gas conference in Gorny. Smokovec. Vojtech Ferenc. “I have a feeling that somehow everything will work out.” Also in December 2019, an agreement was signed to expand transit.”
According to the president of the country’s main gas company, negotiations are underway to expand transit. He recently returned from Baku, where he was with the country’s prime minister, and confirmed that one of the options is the mediation of the Azerbaijani company Socar, which could transport Russian gas through Ukrainian territory.
“The easiest way to attract Socar would be to transfer gas to Gazprom on the Ukraine-Slovakia border, allowing the Russian company to continue providing services to its European customers.” – said Vojtech Ferenc, adding that, despite kyiv’s rejection of such a scenario, negotiations to maintain the status quo continue.
Meanwhile, the Slovak SPP is preparing for different scenarios and has built up record reserves in the country’s storage facilities. UGS storage facilities are 95% full. It contains 3.3 billion cubic meters, while the country’s annual consumption is about 5 billion cubic meters. Gazprom supplies a little more than half.
