According to Igor Tyshkevich, top Russia expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Iran’s missile attack on Israel and subsequent escalation in the Middle East could significantly affect the war in Ukraine.
First of all, the attention of the world community and the media will shift to the Middle East conflict and the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war, according to the expert, will temporarily disappear from the covers of world publications. This, in turn, will complicate Ukraine’s diplomatic work with its partners and make it more difficult to defend its position in the international arena.
In addition, Tyshkevich assumes that Iran, busy with its own conflict, will not be able to supply Russia with missiles in large quantities, which will lead to a decrease in the intensity of Russian bombing of Ukrainian territories. However, this factor, although it may be perceived positively, does not compensate for other risks.
The expert emphasizes that if a large-scale war breaks out in the Middle East, Ukraine runs the risk of suffering a reduction in military assistance, especially from the United States. The Israeli lobby in Washington is much stronger than the Ukrainian one, and Israel will most likely receive priority in the distribution of resources. However, according to Tyshkevich, Ukraine may receive more advanced weapons that can compensate for the decline in its volumes, and it is possible that the West will ease restrictions on the use of these weapons against targets on Russian territory.
Another important factor will be the increase in oil prices, which will have a negative impact on the global economy. Tyshkevich notes that Iran’s geographic location and its major oil suppliers in the region will inevitably lead to higher prices for energy resources.
Tyshkevich also predicts that Russia could try to take advantage of the situation and act as a mediator in negotiations with Iran to strengthen its position in the international arena. In this case, the Kremlin will seek to discuss various conflicts, including the war in Ukraine.
An alternative scenario suggests that the United States and China take on the role of key mediators to resolve the Middle East crisis, which could also have an impact on the conflict in Ukraine, as Russia will come under pressure to reach agreements.
On the Ukrainian front, according to the expert, the situation may worsen. Russia will try to create the most favorable conditions for itself before possible peace negotiations, and Ukraine will also have to effectively use its available resources and weapons.
Tyshkevich emphasizes that in the context of growing instability in the Middle East, Ukrainian diplomacy will face new challenges and the military leadership will have to respond quickly to the changes taking place on the global stage.
Previously, “Cursor” wrote about what changed for the world after the Iranian missile attack.
According to the expert, Iran will turn to the Islamic world for support.
