Benjamin Netanyahu inflicted in record time a Copernican shift on the map of the Middle East with the dismantling of Hezbollah and Hamas, its incursion into Lebanon and its imminent counterattack against Iran. Even if some observers fear an escalation, the ayatollahs’ regime is very weakened. What is the Israeli Prime Minister really seeking with these attacks? Basically, annihilate Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran, their eternal enemies, before Joe Biden leaves the White House in five weekssay analysts and experts in the region consulted by EL ESPAÑOL.
Even if these groups could rearm in the future, Netanyahu thus gains several years of peace to regain his credibility with Israeli voters, even though it has been a year since the Hamas attack on the kibbutzim on October 7 in during which thousands of Israelis were murdered. , raped and dozens more kidnapped by the Islamic terrorist group that has ruled Gaza for decades.
Israel’s military superiority in the region has been relentless, and in its plan to annihilate its enemies, it has massacred nearly 40,000 Palestinians, mostly innocent civilians, women and children, although it has claimed that its attacks on Hamas targets were “surgical”.
What does Netanyahu want?
Unlike the bloody incursions in Gaza, which caused divisions even within Israeli society, “the operations in Lebanon enjoy broad public support. Tens of thousands of Israelis have been forced to flee their homes in northern Israel because of rocket, missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah, which, with Iranian support, is considered a a far more powerful threat to Israeli security than Hamas in the south. said the colonel Richard Outzenresearcher at the Atlantic Council of Türkiye.
More than Netanyahu, adds this analyst, he establishment The Israeli security team has for months considered this to be the best possible war, and perhaps the inevitableand its goal is “an end to the Hezbollah threat against Israel in southern Lebanon, and the return of stability and security to northern Israel so that residents can return.”
The Israeli security apparatus took almost a year to develop this plan, as evidenced by the meticulous intervention and detonation of the search for Hezbollah members, assassinated one by one, until the annihilation of the leader of the training. Hassan Nasrallahend of September.
“Netanyahu wants permanent results, nothing more, nothing less. He paid a high price and endured international condemnation, and now he wants his goods, perhaps a subjugated and ruled Gaza Strip by Israel or some sort of peacekeeping mission. The dream of a Palestinian state has become hell,” explains Kaveh Nematipour, an Iranian activist and analyst in exile.
Hamas and Hezbollah, proxies from Iran —like the Houthis of Yemen—It will take years, money and resources to rebuild, but with Iran in dire straits and Arab states increasingly willing to recognize Israel, it will be increasingly difficult, the activist adds. Until now, the “multi-front war” waged by Iran through its proxies has prevented this from becoming a central objective, but given the growing cost of this type of war for Israel and its impatience with threats to its status quoThe Netanyahu government has decided to launch a deeper and bolder offensive. “The Israelis see the opportunity to deliver a devastating blow at a reasonable cost”assesses Outzen.
A Zionist president in Washington
Why specifically now? In addition to October’s birthday, “Netanyahu wants seize the moment while Biden is still in powerbecause he knows he has your unconditional support. “Biden is probably the most pro-Israel US president in the last 50 years, and he has openly declared that he is a Zionist. » Netanyahu knows that “neither Donald asset neither one nor the other Kamala Harris They would support Israel in the same way. And he is looking for a big victory, hitting Hezbollah and, finally, Iran hard,” says Nematipour.
A point of view with which Outzen agrees: “it seems that Netanyahu feels very free to act without an authoritarian president setting limits. Its escalation against Hezbollah would have been more difficult with a new president.”
It is very likely that Israel’s retaliation following the recent pyrotechnic attack by Iranian ballistic missiles will target Tehran’s nuclear and military facilities very soon.
Iran on the brink of civil war
Although some observers fear an escalation that could expand the conflict, given the volatility of the region and Iran’s nuclear program, Outzen and Nematipour are convinced that Tehran is greatly weakened by the regime’s corrupt idiosyncrasies.
“Iran’s options are limited. »said the American.
First of all, because proxy Hezbollah, the most powerful, suffered serious damage. Second, because its own conventional offensive capabilities (fighter aircraft, ground forces, missiles, air defense, precision strikes, etc.) have proven insufficient to seriously threaten Israel. And third, Iran suffers from its own internal political and economic challenges. For now, it appears their response will be largely rhetorical, although they will undoubtedly seek to demonstrate their ability to carry out terrorist attacks and indirect attacks in Israel and against Jewish targets around the world.
“I have long predicted that Iran will eventually descend into civil war. »assesses the Iranian activist. “The mullahs are shooting at peaceful protesters in the streets, but they cannot respond to military attacks of this scale. » Tehran will try to demonstrate that it has the capacity to counterattack Israel, and that it has an important asset, its size and its ability to react to bombings.
For Nematipour, the risks of civil war in Iran are high. “It wouldn’t be much different from Syria. If more weapons are brought into the country, this will be inevitable. The regime is alienating and killing its own people. And people are becoming more and more aggressive. For example, he gives the death of members of the security forces during successive waves of civil protests in Iran: during the green wave of 2010, to which he was part, around thirty civilians died and no soldier died, during the latest demonstrations against the death of Mahsa AminiIn 2022, there have been 516 protesters killed and 50 among security forces. “If people see an opportunity, they will rise up”.
Furthermore, in the regions of Iranian Kurdistan and Baluchistan, tribes are already armed, waiting for an opportunity to attack the regime.
Passivity of Arab countries and Tehran’s allies
Hamas terrorists thought, a few days before their October 7 attack, that Arab countries would come to their aid. This is the curse of Sunni myopia in the region: the Syrian opposition also thought that the regime would fall immediately by rebelling against Bashar al-Assad in 2011. In the case of Gaza, it is ironic that Arab countries looked the other way while Palestinian civilians were massacred, much to the horror of pro-Palestinian students on Western campuses. Who will welcome these millions of displaced people?
Arab countries have neither the capacity nor the will to intervene to protect Palestine, notes Nematipour. “Throughout history we have seen that the Arabs never had a serious plan for Palestine. The Sunnis in Syria also expected them to intervene, but this never happened. This is a mistake that is constantly repeated. Arab countries, including those in the Gulf, prefer to maintain relations with the West and focus on their economic prosperity. One of the objectives of the Hamas attack was to end the agreement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, continuing those of Abraham.
Likewise, Tehran’s international allies, Moscow and Beijing, are unable to act. Vladimir Putin is very busy with Ukraine and the war obsessions of Xi Jinping They are limited to Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The Middle East will never be the same
Israeli operations against Hamas will continue in Gaza until a political agreement is reached to recover the hostages and expel Hamas leaders from the strip, the colonel predicts. These will be less intensive operations than in Lebanon, but they will continue. Hezbollah is likely to survive, but its ability to threaten Israel or serve as Iran’s “right arm” in Syria has been significantly degraded. Iranian control over swaths of Syria and Iraq will be reduced accordingly.
Israel is not going to withdraw from Lebanon, Nematipour predicts, the current conflict directly pitting Israel and Iran. Hezbollah was defeated, and that changed the dynamic. This is the decisive moment, end of game. The Middle East will never be the same again.
