Spain lost between July and September 194,683 affiliated with Social Security. This is the worst third quarter since 2012, still in the midst of a crisis. Great Recessionand confirms fears of stagnation in the Spanish labor market. However, the total number of workers is close to 21.2 million people, almost half a million more than a year ago.
The ninth month of classes ended with only 8,805 new workers compared to August, when there were the worst September since 2019. This is a month in which unemployment generally increases moderately, as does employment. Marked by the end of summer contracts linked to tourism and the start of classes, the results never emerge.
Something similar happens with the entire third trimester. As the following graph shows, with the exception of the years 2020 and 2021, both influenced by the pandemic, the balance between May and September is generally negative. However, this year’s stands out, since Such a pronounced decline has not been recorded since 2012. In 2019, the data was close, but slightly more positive.
But, in any case, beyond the comparison with other years, what worries the various analysts is the slowdown in the labor market in the third quarter. As if that less dynamism in employment It extends to the entire second part of the year, which could put an end to the good performance recorded until June.
With the exception of January, a month marked by the end of the Christmas campaign, very powerful for commerce and, to a lesser extent, for tourism and the hotel industry, Until June, there was monthly growth in the number of Social Security contributors.. In fact, between March and May, the increases were around 200,000 workers.
In this sense, Funcas also highlights the Moderation of job creations in the third quarter. However, and as already noted, the study center emphasizes that “this pattern of more intense growth during the first two quarters of the year and slowdown during the last two was also observed in 2022 and 2023”.
According to calculations by the Caisse d’Epargne Foundation, over the entire third quarter, Membership growth rate from the previous quarter slowed to 0.5%compared to 0.7% recorded during the first two quarters of the year.
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For its part, the employers’ organization also declared itself concerned by “the prospects of a loss of dynamism of activity during the fall”. Indeed, CEOE underlines that the increase in the workforce in September is “lower than that of the pre-pandemic years – 2014 to 2019 -, estimated at 14,260 people, and that that produced in over the previous four years — 2020, 21, 22 and 23 —”.
In any case, and despite some stagnation in the labor market during the third quarter, it is very likely that this year will end positively for employment. And that’s it, Until September, Spain gained 362,196 Social Security affiliates.
In other words, More than 360,000 jobs expected to be destroyed in the last quarter of the year, something that hasn’t happened since 2012.
