Early warnings when an extreme episode like DANA hits Spain are about to “save lives”, as UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres sums it up in a few words.
An early warning system has become essential, as climate change leads to “more frequent and more intense extreme weather events”, explains the UN. “They are a proven, effective and cost-effective way to save lives and jobs, land and infrastructure.”
These early warnings work because they allow us to anticipate threats, understand the risks, disseminate alerts to the population and prepare us to react, explains the UN “Early Warnings for All” initiative.
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However, the warnings or early red alerts issued by Aemet in recent years – which mean the weather risk is extreme – have even been ignored by various politicians and the right-wing media sphere. In fact, Aemet has come under a campaign of attacks due to its forecasts in which it links events such as heat waves, droughts or DANAS with climate change, as scientific evidence shows.
During this latest extreme episode, the president of the Valencian Generalitat, Carlos Mazón (PP), went to a press conference on Tuesday at 1 p.m. during which he lowered the severity to be expected in the Community: “According to forecasts, the storm will move towards the Serranía de Cuenca, so it is expected that around 6:00 p.m. its intensity will decrease in the rest of the Valencian Community”, he said.
Aemet launched the red level at 7:30 a.m. for the south of Valencia and at 9:41 a.m. it was extended to the entire province. At 5:49 p.m., this severity level was extended until at least 8:00 p.m. Finally, the Valencian Government launched the general alert message at 8:12 p.m. Faced with criticism regarding the delay in activating the alert mechanisms, sources from the Valencian PP have offloaded their responsibilities to the central government. “Fundamental rights (mobility, work, etc.) cannot be restricted because “there is no state of alarm decreed which would correspond to the government,” they argued. However, it is up to the autonomous communities to issue alerts recommending that citizens limit their travel. Catalonia did so this Wednesday afternoon due to forecasts of heavy rain.
“People should not die from these types of weather events predicted in countries that have the resources to do better,” analyzes Liz Stephens, professor of climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading, for Science Media Center. “Although a Red Weather Warning has been issued for the area, allowing sufficient time for people to move away from danger, a Red Warning alone does not communicate what the impact will be and what people should do” , he concludes.
Although a Red Weather Warning was issued for the area in time for people to move away from danger, a Red Warning alone is not enough to indicate what the impact will be and what people should do .
Liz Stephens at the Science Media Center
— Professor of Climate Risk and Resilience at the University of Reading
The general alert messages, which automatically reach all cell phones, had already been activated previously in the Community of Madrid due to the arrival of a powerful storm in September 2023. After the rains, the mayor of Madrid, José Luis Martínez Almeida, complained because the intensity of the rains in the city had been less than expected in the Aemet alert: “I believe and ask Aemet to refine the forecasts as far as possible .”
In the same sense, the newspaper The world published an article in which he spoke of a “false alarm”. The media’s deputy director, Jorge Bustos, publicly complained: “What is this Orwellian beeping, no matter how much it rains?” What’s the next step in state intrusion into citizens’ private lives? » He later deleted this tweet.
In this same episode, the president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla (PP), followed Almeida’s example by declaring: “I call for reflection: if a public body warns of an “extreme danger “, it must be very safe, because this has social and economic consequences. On this occasion, after seeing what happened in Valencia, he activated for the “first time” the alert system “so that all cell phones located in the red alert zone, in this case the countryside of Cádiz, receive this message: risk of flooding. .
Discrediting meteorologists seems to have become one of the latest strategies of climate change deniers, and warnings are part of the job of these meteorologists. “We had never received these insults,” lamented Aemet spokesperson Estrella Gutiérrez in a conversation with elDiario.es. The new secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, Celeste Saulo, summarized the problem of the attacks for this media: “This is an unscientific wave; Killing the messenger won’t solve climate change.
“We must keep in mind that warnings are issued for relatively large areas, at the regional level, and that the most extreme consequences often occur at the specific level, at the municipality level, and this depends on a lot of other things that do It has nothing to do with precipitation,” emphasizes Enrique Rodríguez Camino, state meteorologist, as the SMC clarified “Between intense precipitation and its destructive power, there is a whole. chain of actions that must also be considered.
Among these other most important elements is uncontrolled urban planning which has made land impermeable through the construction of buildings and infrastructure. Land thus waterproofed “increases the risk of flooding”, summarizes the European Environment Agency.
