The Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris, Democratic candidate for the White House, maintains her slight performance in recent days in the general average of the polls, published this Thursday: she is 2.2 points ahead of the former President of the United States Donald Trump, Republican candidate, in the polls which reflect the general sentiment of voters in the United States. 32 days before the November 5 electionsHarris would obtain 49.1% of the electorate’s favor, while Trump would remain at 46.9% nationally, according to the general polling average. Instead, Trump would win the presidential electiondue to the Electoral College system. The Republican would end up with 281 electoral votes. Meanwhile, Harris would get 257.
This advantage is insufficient to achieve victory, due to the Electoral College system. Harris needs at least a 3 or 4 percent lead in the overall polling average to think she can win the White House. On the other hand, he fails to take off in the polls.
As you can see in the graph belowKamala Harris and Trump are very close in the battleground states, which are the ones that hold the key to the election. These are the undecided: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Together, they total 94 electoral votes. Harris fell in the polls compared to Joe Biden after their disastrous June 27 debate, where they came clean their cognitive problems. But he failed to achieve victory. That’s why she began airing a series of ads in undecided states on Thursday to attract the attention of Republican voters, who are not convinced by Trump.
2024 is 2016: Harris loses like Clinton
Can 2016 be repeated? Democratic strategists are now making it clear that this can happen again. That year, Trump won against polls and political analysts, who always gave Hillary Clinton as winner. They failed in their calculations by not taking into account the Electoral College voting system. The Democratic strategy of winning cities by enough margin to win all of each’s electoral votes failed, as Trump mobilized voters in cities of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin And Michiganamong other traditionally Republican states.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote: Clinton received 65,853,514 votes. Trump took 62,984,828. In terms of percentage of votes, Hillary Clinton won with 48.2%. Meanwhile, Donald Trump received 46.1%. Instead, Trump was elected and became President of the United States through the Electoral College system. He dyed the card red. He won with 304 electoral votes And Clinton remained at 227.
Can Harris lose Michigan?
In recent days, Michigan has added to the Democratic disaster. Strategists don’t believe Michigan polls give Harris an advantage. Michigan is part, along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, of the famous Blue Wall (blue wall), a traditionally Democratic state that Trump made undecided in 2016 by winning over Hillary Clinton.
Trump’s message seems more specific: He focused on auto plant voters, their families and the entire electorate whose jobs indirectly depend on this sector.
Since entering the campaign, Harris spent $69 million on ads. On the other hand, he has a message that does not resonate with voters, since he spoke about his biography. The electorate is demanding that he present concrete plans to create jobs and improve the economy.
States Harris Got
Colorado (10 electoral votes).
Illinois (19).
New Jersey (14).
new York (28)
Oregon (8).
Maine District 1 (1).
Maine (2).
Minnesota (10).
New Mexico (5).
Virginia (13).
States that Trump secured
Florida (30 electoral votes).
Ohio (17).
Texas (40).
Maine District 2 (1).
Alaska (3).
Iowa (6).
Kansas (6).
Missouri (10).
Mountain (4).
South Carolina (9).
undecided states
Arizona (11). Trump is leading in the polls.
Georgia (16). Trump leads Harris in polls.
Michigan (15). Kamala Harris has a slight lead in opinion polls. But Democrats are wary because Trump won the state in 2016.
Snowfall (6). Kamala Harris is ahead.
North Carolina (16). Trump surpasses Harris.
Pennsylvania (19). The state of Pennsylvania is the most populated of the undecided. He has 19 votes in the Electoral College. It is the most important state in this presidential race. Trump is ahead in some polls. According to the average of the last ones, they are tied.
Wisconsin (10). Kamala Harris is leading in the polls. But Democrats don’t trust him.
Some pollsters add to the previously mentioned seven New Hampshire (4) and Nebraska District 2 (1) to the list of undecided.
