Volatility predominates this week in the bond market. The profitability of European bonds fell to the lowest levels of a year ago on Tuesdaybut the strong rebounds in yields came later in debt on both sides of the Atlantic, and the T-Note, The ten-year American bond rebounded to the levels observed at the beginning of August, at 3.9%.
Sales have been the protagonists of the bond market since Wednesday, but it is this Friday that yields rise more sharply (in this market, when prices fall, yields rise) after the publication of employment data in the United States. United, which positively surprised. . The monthly employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows nonfarm payroll growth of 254,000 in September. These data are a big surprise for the markets which anticipated an increase but much more limited, to 150,000, according to the consensus of Bloomberg. This also represents a marked acceleration from 159,000 in August.
Better-than-expected figure dampens expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and eliminates the possibility of another cut giant (50 basis points, like that achieved by the organization in September), which accelerates sales on the bond market.
The profitability minimums reached this week coincided exactly with the day when the market bought the opposite anticipation, when the CPI data for the Eurozone was also known, which showed that for the first time since June 2021 , prices returned to the stability objective of the European Central Bank, falling to 1.8% and thus fueling the acceleration of the rate cut.
The subsequent rebound was accompanied by an escalation of conflict in the Middle East. After the Iranian attack on Israel, fears of a revenge of the Hebrew Republic on Iran’s oil infrastructure, triggering oil prices to hit $77 per barrel again and raising expectations of worse inflation that would make it difficult to cut interest rates . He pack It is now at the level of 2.2% and the Spanish debt at 2.9%.
