Tunisia goes to the polls again. This Sunday, October 6, this North African country will hold presidential elections that will remind us how far the cradle of the so-called Arab Spring is from being a democratic resurgence. Even if the current Tunisian president, Kaïs Saïedwas democratically elected in 2019, during the last years of his current legislature he argued the law in his favor. These will be the first non-democratic presidential elections in Tunisia in almost fourteen years.
In 2021, Saied led a self-coup after suspending Parliament, creating a new Constitution and dismissing the near majority of his government’s ministers. Added to the government’s irregularities is the repression and imprisonment of opposition leaders during the electoral race. The High Independent Electoral Authority of Tunisia (known as ISIE) rejected the candidacies of 14 candidates in the elections, leaving only Ayachi Zammelleader of the opposition party Azimoun, and Zouhair Maghzaouinationalist left-wing party, Mouvement Populaire.
On October 1, less than a week before the elections, the opposition was reduced to a single candidate. Zammel was sentenced to 12 years in prison. Even though his lawyer insists that the politician is still in the running for president, 37 legal proceedings have already been initiated against him. Zammel is accused of falsifying documents and violating sponsorship rules to apply.
During these elections, “the participation rate will be an indicator of the wear and tear of Saied’s popular party. If, as seems likely, it were weak, his personal legitimacy would be weakened and this could affect the support he received during these years from the army,” he explains to this media. Miguel Hernando de Larramendiprofessor at the University of Castilla La Mancha.
An anti-system without support
In 2019, in a context marked by the political blockade of the country following the death of the former president Beji Caid Essebsithe lack of responses to socio-economic demands and the absence of social justice, Kais Saied appeared as the best alternative. “He presented himself as a stowaway with a very populist message. Saïed gave himself the representation of the people in the face of a corrupt elite. In his speeches, he postulated a return of democracy to the people,” he explains, also for this media, Bosco Govantesprofessor of political science at the Pablo de Olavide University.
Then, the electoral support gave him the legitimacy to promote a roadmap guided by the objective of dismantling the institutional political system established after the 2014 Constitution. The reality is that, two years after beginning his presidency, he approved a Constitution which reinforces “presidentialism”. without counter-powers” and granted “very limited powers to a Parliament which included individually elected deputies and who in practice became executors of presidential directives,” explains Hernando de Larramendi.
Political vagaries and their iron fist have affected the economy and socio-economic situation of the country. “The situation has deteriorated since 2021 with a crisis of shortage of basic products, an increase in inflation and debt,” explains the professor from the University of Castilla La Mancha. According to the African Development Bank, in 2023, the GDP growth rate fell by 0.4%, while inflation continued to grow to 9.3%, driven by rising commodity prices .
Further political repression
“We are in a phase of monopolization of all powers and permanent decline in public freedoms, in particular freedom of assembly, association and the press,” explains Govantes. The culmination of the repression took place in September 2022 with the approval of Decree Number 54, from which any citizen who spreads false information against the state through their social networks can be imprisoned. “To combat fake news, she covered the crackdown on journalists and civil society activists”underlines Hernando de Larramendi.
The imposition of this decree also affected the leaders of political parties such as the Islamist Ennahda, the Free Constitutional Party of Abir Moussi and Sihem Bensedrine, president of the Truth and Dignity Forum of Tunisia. “Ultimately, the decree was used as a way to imprison any opponent, equating it with any criticism of the president, attack on the state or lie,” adds University professor Pablo de Olavide. According to the 2023 Democratic Index published by The Economist Intelligence Unit, Tunisia ranks 82nd out of 167.
ANDbetween xenophobia and favorable agreements with the U.AND
“Kais Saied took advantage of the legitimacy given to him by his large electoral victory in 2019 to present himself as an interlocutor of the European Union,” believes Hernando de Larramendi. In July 2023, a European delegation led by the head of the Italian Council of Ministers, Georgia Melonithe president of the European Commission, Von der Leyenand the former Dutch Prime Minister and new NATO Secretary General, Marc Ruttelaunched a “strategic and global alliance” with President Saied in Tunisia.
Aid of 1 billion euros, conditional on Tunisia’s ratification of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, of which 105 million was allocated to border management to prevent the arrival of migrants in European waters. The professor from the University of Castilla La Mancha believes that “in practice, the agreements with the EU and, above all, with Italy, reflect the transactional nature of the agreements with which the Tunisian president has managed to limit the scope of European reviews. the process of regression of freedoms in the country.
Added to the cordialities from Brussels to contain immigration is a speech tinged with xenophobia from Saied himself. In February 2023, Tunisian authorities indiscriminately arrested at least 850 people of sub-Saharan origin.
In Tunisia, “There is a discourse of invasion of sub-Saharan migrants very close to the discourse of the far right in Europe”explains Govantes. “President Saied said there were people interested in changing the cultural identity, seeing the sub-Saharan population as problematic and a threat to the country’s Arab identity,” he adds. In May 2024, the authorities launched a crackdown campaign against NGOs, activists or public officials involved in actions related to assistance to sub-Saharan refugees or migrants.
