NEWSru.co.il continues to publish reviews on the political situation in Israel written by journalist Gabi Wolfson.
On the last day of the outgoing Jewish year, the Maariv newspaper published the results of a traditional weekly poll. In addition to the usual ones, questions also arose about the mood of Israelis in general. For example, respondents were asked if they had considered leaving Israel because of the war. 11% responded positively, permanently, and 24% “for a time.” 66% of respondents believe that Israel is a good place to live, but 21% do not want or do not want their children to live in Israel.
The evaluation of data in surveys tends to depend largely on the position of the interpreter and is very subjective. At the same time, the political aspect of the last elections of the year leaves no room for doubt. Likud’s rising trend continues. If the elections had been held today, this party would have won 26 seats, and “Makhane Mamlahti” would have won 21. In a poll published in the same publication on February 16, 2024, “Makhane Mamlahti” won 40 seats, the “Likud” ” – 18. In these figures, very temporary and which exclusively reflect the current situation, and do not predict the future, the complete panorama of the Israeli political system is shown on the threshold of the new Jewish year.
Netanyahu – Phoenix Bird
Nothing seemed more evident at the beginning of the outgoing year than the definitive and irrevocable loss of popularity of the current coalition as a whole and of the head of Government. Benjamin Netanyahu In particular. Coalition 64, formed after the 25th Knesset elections, fell from grace amid protests over legal reform, and the October 7, 2023 disaster appeared to have caused the current coalition’s loss of legitimacy. and the prime minister was almost irreversible. Strategic Advisor Roni Rimon He told me several times over the past year that if we proceed solely from rationality, Netanyahu has no chance of rehabilitation. “However, when it comes to Netanyahu, you cannot rely on rational alone,” Rimon admitted. And it turned out that he was right. Today, Netanyahu leads a party that, according to all polls, maintains its position as the largest in the Knesset, and he himself is ahead of his competitors for the position of head of government.
There are many reasons that can explain this almost incomprehensible metamorphosis, even without resorting to the irrational. Four factors seem to me to be the main ones.
First of all, the successes during the war. Despite criticism for many fair and not so fair reasons, real successes were achieved during this war, to which Israelis, including the Prime Minister, give credit.
Secondly, the fragmentation and helplessness of the opposition. Opposition political circles are more busy with discussions among themselves than with active actions against the government. The opponents could not offer anything original and realistic. The voter looked around and realized that at the moment there was no serious alternative. That doesn’t mean he can’t run or that voters don’t want him to run. That’s why virtual parties are so popular. Naftali Bennett (By the way, according to the latest poll, the Likud also surpasses him). However, among current politicians there is no real alternative to Netanyahu.
The third factor would be more correctly called “protest popularity.” The frantic attempts of government opponents to blame Netanyahu even for those sins with which he had nothing to do irritate not only orthodox “bibists”. Journalist Ari Shavit said his 15-year-old son saw signs reading “You are the leader, you are guilty” in Tel Aviv and said that if he had been undecided, the signs would have pushed him to vote for Likud. Attempts to blame the prime minister for everything, including the lack of an agreement with Hamas, irritate the undecided. It is especially upsetting given the direct words from US representatives that there is no deal because of Hamas.
And finally, Netanyahu’s extraordinary public relations talent, who throughout this year has managed to form in the minds of Israelis an image, as they say now, a narrative that corresponds to what is beneficial for the prime minister. .
At the same time, we must not forget that Netanyahu’s coalition is still a long way from regaining its majority. However, the elections are also far away. And everything can change.
Lapid is a politician of missed opportunities
The opposition leader started this year in a less than ideal position. Lapid strongly and actively criticized the legal reform and the government that implements it, giving up his place at the center of the political map. Benny Gantzouwho was perceived as a responsible adult even before October 7, 2023. After the war began, Lapid adopted similar tactics to those he had followed before the war began and did not join the emergency government created by Netanyahu and Gantz.
Avigdor Liberman He also did not join him, but for completely different reasons. The head of the NDI demanded to participate in a reduced cabinet of ministers, while Lapid demanded to be removed from the coalition. Itamara Ben-Gvira AND Bezalel Smotricha. Thus, one has achieved the image of a politician who tries to gain the opportunity to influence, and the second, the image of a politician who tries to push those who are inconvenient to him over the side of the ship where decisions are made. Another tactical option for Lapid is to rely on the most radical circles of protesters on Kaplan Street. However, this niche is firmly occupied. Yair Golan and other radical left-wing politicians. Lapid has little left and we see the result in the polls.
Radicalization: Israelis looking for quick solutions
A natural result of a national crisis is the rise of radical parties. Society seeks quick solutions and simple answers to complex problems. In this context, two parties registered growth: Otzma Yehudit, on the one hand, and Yair Golan’s Democrat, on the other.
Golan’s task is simpler. Firstly, it filled the void left by the failure of Meretz in the last elections and the deep crisis of the Labor Party. Left-wing voters said they had had enough of the experimentation and supported Golan. At least for now.
Itamar Ben-Gvir had to solve more complex problems. The ten months preceding the war convinced almost everyone that the head of Otzma Yehudit was a worse minister than an opponent. Therefore, with the beginning of the war, Ben-Gvir returned to his favorite niche of producing coalition crises and skillfully using his capabilities as a coalition member.
After Ben-Gvir (as well as Yair Golan) there are people who do not want to burden themselves with nuances and details. They have, it seems to them, a coherent image of the world that they present to the voter. Ben-Gvir made his electorate understand that all the problems of the war were that he, bearer of a different concept than that which had previously prevailed, was not allowed to take the helm. In one of the polls published during the war, Ben-Gvir received the highest support from the right-wing electorate as leader of the national side after Netanyahu. You can lament this data as much as you want, but it indicates a certain trend that cannot be ignored.
Alternative? Necessarily militant, not necessarily right-wing
It is generally accepted that the war turned Israeli society to the right. However, the terms “right” and “left” have long since lost their meaning, even in the originally distorted sense they had in Israeli public life. The war has made Israelis less willing to take the risks involved in trying to reach an agreement with the Palestinian Arabs. Today it will be difficult to find support for initiatives that even remotely resemble the Oslo agreements or unilateral withdrawal. However, it will be equally difficult to find those who agree to support, for example, the annexation of Judea and Samaria or the return of Jewish settlements to Gaza. Therefore, the basis of the approach of those who want to be a political alternative will be “bitonism” or, in normal language, an aggressive approach in the field of security. That is why today two figures are in the center of attention: Bennett and Lieberman. Both were defense ministers (and not the worst), and both defend a vision of security that involves proactive actions instead of seeking momentary peace and tranquility. This is what the Israelis will seek after the war.
Elections move away, coalition threat persists
Accession Gideon Saar The government undoubtedly gave Netanyahu confidence in the future, but this confidence is very fragile. The coalition faces three main challenges.
The first is the budget. It must be passed by the end of March 2025 at the latest and, contrary to popular belief, is the easiest task facing the coalition. The budget is very often used as a lever for other issues. Another situation in which the budget becomes a reason for the collapse of the coalition is when one of the parties included in it concludes that the elections benefit it. At the moment, the elections do not benefit anyone in the coalition.
The second problem, which may be related to the first, is the law on compulsory military service. Just before the holidays, the ultra-Orthodox abandoned their demand to pass this law even before the budget was approved. This does not mean that the topic is off the agenda. A bill that suits the coalition, the ultra-Orthodox, the High Court and the army is not yet on the horizon.
And the third problem is the development of the war and the surprises associated with it. Sa’ar joined the government to have real influence on its actions. How long will he and Netanyahu perform together? How long Yoav Galant Will he agree to remain as Defense Minister when the threat of his replacement by Saarland remains quite real? These are just the simplest questions about the connection between war and political stability.
And one last thing. The defense evidence phase of Benjamin Netanyahu’s trial will begin in December. The Prime Minister will be the first to testify personally. So far, attempts to delay the start of testing have led nowhere. Those around Netanyahu almost dismissively refute Lieberman’s claims that Netanyahu will start elections or sign a pretrial agreement to avoid a situation in which he is forced to spend time in a court rather than in the head of government’s office. . Netanyahu’s moves are unpredictable, but what the trial entails could be a factor in Netanyahu’s political decisions.
