The Financial Times reports that Western countries are discussing with the Ukrainian authorities the possibility of ending the war on the principle of “territory in exchange for NATO.” This scheme assumes that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, but without the return of the territories captured by Russia. Although these lands will remain legally part of Ukraine, they will not be subject to Alliance security guarantees.
The model being discussed by diplomats is reminiscent of West Germany during the Cold War, when only the western part of Germany was part of NATO, while the eastern part remained under Soviet control. The idea is that Ukraine will receive security guarantees and join the Alliance, but will leave the issue of the return of occupied territories to be resolved in the future through diplomatic means. This implies de facto Russian control over these lands, without recognition of its sovereignty over them.
However, this idea faces serious challenges. First of all, Russia categorically opposes Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Second, there remains the question of whether the United States and other NATO countries are willing to undertake obligations to protect Ukraine under such conditions. It is also unclear how such a plan would be received in Ukraine, where ceding territory could face strong public resistance.
As the Financial Times points out, despite the interest in such a compromise, the decision remains delicate for the Ukrainian leadership, since the transfer of territory is a complex and painful issue for the country, especially in the context of the ongoing hostilities and the desire to return. lands occupied by military means.
