In the Russian media there is a lot of talk about the crisis of the European Union economy and its main engine: the German economy. At the same time, there is a lot of general reasoning and little specificity.
The latest report from the German Automobile Industry Association (VDA, Verband der Automobilindustrie eV), the professional body representing the German automobile industry, offers without pathos, in the cold language of statistics, concrete data on the crisis in the main industrial sector of the country: the automobile industry.
According to the VDA report, 3.1 million passenger cars were produced in Germany in the first three quarters of this year, 1% less than the previous year. However, compared to the pre-crisis period of 2019, production in the first nine months decreased by 13%.
Thus, the beginning of the crisis countdown is associated with the year 2020, that is, the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic. The February 2022 military events in Ukraine interrupted the recovery from the coronavirus epidemic and the decline continued, but at a moderate pace: 1% in 2024, so the continuation of the crisis does not seem dramatic.
The process of decreasing production is not linear. For example, in September 2024, passenger car production in Germany reached a volume of 393.6 thousand units, 9% more than in September 2023.
The German economy has a marked export character. This year, since January, Germany has exported 2.4 million new passenger cars, 3% more than in the same period last year. However, exports in the first three quarters fell by almost 10% compared to 2019. In September, 305,400 new passenger cars were exported from German production plants, a year-on-year increase of 11%.
Compared to the same month last year, September now saw 19% more domestic orders. However, the volume of orders received from abroad fell 6% in September compared to the previous year. Overall, orders fell 4% in September. However, order volume in the first three quarters was 2% higher than the previous year.
In the first nine months of this year, that is, in the first three quarters, a total of 2.12 million new passenger cars were put into operation in Germany, 1% less than in the first three quarters of the previous year and a 23% less than in the first three quarters of the previous year. less than for the base year 2019. Thus, the domestic market of the German automobile industry has shrunk by almost a quarter since 2019.
In September, new registrations fell for the third consecutive month compared to the same period last year. In September, 208.8 thousand new passenger cars were put into operation in Germany, 7% less than in September of the previous year.
The crisis in the German automobile industry affects the “green” part of it to a greater extent. The further reduction in this segment of the German automobile industry is understandable. Due to the crisis, the income of the German consumer is decreasing, so they begin to prefer cheaper cars with gasoline engines.
In the first three months, 409.4 thousand fully or partially electric vehicles were put into operation, 20% less than in the first three quarters of the previous year. However, in September, 5% more electric vehicles were put into circulation: 49.4 thousand units.
Regarding electric vehicles, the crisis affects the domestic market to a greater extent than exports. In the first nine months, 276.4 thousand electric vehicles produced in the country were put into operation in Germany, 29% less than a year earlier. Once again, the process is not linear. In September, the number of electric vehicle registrations in Germany increased by 9% and amounted to 34.5 thousand units year-on-year.
However, the VDA expects that in 2024 the total number of new electric passenger cars on the German market as a whole will decrease by 21%, to 551 thousand units. In its previous forecast, which turned out to be more optimistic, the VDA indicated an annual decrease of 17%, to 578 thousand units. The drop in the electric battery segment will be more significant: 29%, up to 372 thousand. The previous, more optimistic forecast was 25%, 393 thousand.
