In Armenia, with the arrival of autumn, the opposition intensified. Opponents of the current power held a rally on October 2 and also made sure that their leader Bagrat Galstanyan spoke on central television. A new promotion will take place today, October 6. Observers point out that the protests so far have not impressed either in scale or in the enthusiasm of the participants.
The fall political season began on September 22, when opponents Nikol Pashinian gathered at the Yerevan sports complex named after Karen Demirchyan. There, the opposition announced the beginning of a new stage of the struggle and announced its objectives.
According Bagrat GalstanianIf he comes to power, he will seek to expel Azerbaijani troops from Armenian territory, return Armenian prisoners from Azerbaijan, and return Karabakh refugees to their homes. “For me the choice is simple: homeland or death.” – advertisement.
The first street demonstration took place on October 2 in the center of Yerevan. Opposition supporters first gathered at Republic Square and then marched to the television center building, where they demanded that Galstanyan be allowed to go on air.
After some brief discussions, the politician had the opportunity to speak; in his speech he stated that Armenia, under the current power, faces the fate of Karabakh.
“The territories of the border regions were surrendered, thousands of victims, begging for peace. The head of government is busy worshiping money and position.” – he noted and called on viewers to attend a new rally on October 6.
The action left a double impression. For one thing, there were noticeably fewer participants than in the spring. Judging by videos and photographs, the demonstration attracted up to 5,000 people, although tens of thousands attended in May and June.
Observers also noted that the protesters behaved quite calmly and did not feel prepared for a tough confrontation. On the other hand, the current action was the first after the break. The next demonstrations may be more massive and emotional.
Overall, it may appear that favorable conditions have developed for the Armenian opposition this fall. This is demonstrated, in particular, by numerous opinion polls.
Thus, according to research, only 8% of citizens value the work of the Prime Minister positively. Nikol Pashinian75% give a negative assessment, 67% believe that the current government is not capable of concluding a peace treaty with Azerbaijan that is based on the country’s interests.
However, it is not at all certain that the opposition will be able to take advantage of this situation. One of the problems for Pashinyan’s opponents is that the current protests do not, in fact, have any specific motive. In spring, protests began after the delimitation of part of the state border; During this process, Yerevan lost four villages to Baku. The decision sparked widespread outrage and residents in many border areas felt threatened.
Now there are also many difficulties. Among the painful issues is the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan; It is believed that the document may contain clauses extremely disadvantageous for the Armenian side. In addition, in Yerevan, under pressure from Baku, there began talk of rewriting the main state norms, including the Constitution. All of these topics could become explosive in the future, but right now everything is limited to conversations and forecasts.
The second problem of the opposition is the lack of a clear program of its own. Bagrat Galstanyan and his supporters are highly critical of Pashinyan’s policies, but do not offer a clear and understandable alternative. Sometimes one has the feeling that the protesters speak in the style of “for all that is good.”
Thus, Galstanyan has repeatedly spoken out against a new armed conflict with Azerbaijan, but in favor of the return of Karabakh refugees to their homes. It is not very clear how this can be combined.
Curiously, the situation in this regard has not improved over the summer. Thus, during a speech on public television on October 2, Galstanyan called Pashinyan evil and demanded his early resignation.
But when the television presenter Petros Ghazaryan When opponents asked him about his vision of the peace treaty with Azerbaijan and relations with Russia, he did not receive a clear answer, they reported. “News”.
Finally, the third point is that despite the presence of numerous internal and external difficulties, the Armenian economy is demonstrating stable growth.
Thus, in January-August, the country’s GDP increased by 9% and the volume of foreign trade doubled, amounting to 22.5 billion dollars. It is clear that it is not primarily about effective government policy, but about the favorable external environment that Armenia has become. one of the countries through which the flow of imports to Russia continues. However, protest activity under such conditions inevitably declines.
Head of the Caucasus Sector, IMEMO RAS Vadim Mukhanov considers that so far the Armenian opposition has no chance of success:
“We saw performances in April-June, at one point they attracted tens of thousands of people, but they gradually died down and it is still not clear why these actions could now be more successful. Let me remind you that after the second Karabakh war, early parliamentary elections were held in Armenia, and then there was also a lot of talk about the low popularity ratings of Pashinyan and his team. In the end, however, the ruling party regained its majority and remained in power.”
Armenian political scientist Arshaluys Mgdesyan He says that Armenian society has accumulated enormous fatigue with the Pashinyan regime, but the current opposition has not yet found a common language with the people:
“Bagrat Galstanyan and his team have several problems. First of all, they are suspected of having connections with former presidents. Serzh Sargsyan AND Robert Kocharianwhich have a high anti-rating. Secondly, we do not hear answers to the most important questions about what to do next in relations with Azerbaijan, how to ensure the country’s security, how to delimit and demarcate the border. A political force that presents a well-developed program and is capable of consolidating the people will hit the jackpot and take power into its own hands, whether through the streets or through electoral mechanisms.”
