US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, in a telephone conversation on the evening of October 6 with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Galant, reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to “prevent Iran and its partners and supported proxies from taking advantage of the situation.” or expand the conflict,” the Pentagon reported. he said in a statement.
“The United States maintains significant capabilities in the region to protect its personnel and facilities, continue to support Israeli self-defense, and deter further escalation.” – assured the head of the American military department.
He also marked the one-year anniversary of the October 7 attacks on southern Israel by reaffirming the United States’ “unwavering” commitment to Israel’s security, a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and “a diplomatic solution that will allow citizens return safely to their homes.” on both sides of the border between Israel and Lebanon.
Last night turned out to be extremely disturbing. Israel was expected to carry out a combat mission in response to the Iranian missile attack on October 1, precisely on the anniversary of the start of the war in Gaza. These assumptions were reinforced on Monday night, when Tehran introduced a complete ban on flights through its airspace from 9:00 p.m. (8:30 p.m. Moscow time) on October 6 until 6:00 a.m. (5:30 a.m. Moscow time). on October 7th. However, air travel restrictions, which were due to be in place until Monday morning, were lifted ahead of schedule. Work at Iranian airports resumed from 11:00 p.m. on October 6 (10:30 p.m. Moscow time) “due to the removal of obstacles.”
Recall that on October 3, the Federal Air Transport Agency issued a recommendation to operate flights to Iran, Iraq and Israel or through the territories of these countries from 09:00 to 19:00 Moscow time. These restrictions will remain in effect until November 3.
There has been no Israeli “retaliatory attack” yet. However, many politicians and experts in the West and the Middle East consider it almost inevitable. To avoid appearing weak, the Israelis have no choice but to respond to a massive attack by their main geopolitical adversary in the region last week.
Israel is known to have been coordinating its response with the United States in recent days. They strongly dissuade him from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and, less strongly, they advise him against bombing the Islamic Republic’s oil-producing complex. Washington’s arguments during consultations with Tel Aviv on the need for an accurate calculation of all possible risks and, preferably, a joint response to an Iranian missile attack were recently presented by The Washington Post.
According to her, the United States, during talks with its closest ally in the Middle East, confirms that Tehran has faced a series of serious military setbacks in recent months, including the loss of key people in pro-Iran organizations and paramilitary groups, including allies as a whole, as a result of the Israeli attacks. This forced former US officials and analysts, in a conversation with a Washington publication, to express their (and at the same time that of the administration) joe biden) concern about the following: Iran’s losses could provoke its rush to create nuclear weapons, and such a leap will be even more irreversible if Israel decides to launch a large-scale military operation with attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Iran has been steadily advancing its nuclear program since May 2018, when then-U.S. donald trump withdrew from the nuclear deal between world powers and Tehran, concluded on July 14, 2015 (while in the White House barack obama as President and Joe Biden as Vice President of the United States). Washington now fears that Tehran could step up its efforts to become a nuclear power and use it as a deterrent against its opponents.
Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stern warning following the Iranian missile attack on October 1:
“Today Iran has made a big mistake and will pay for it, the Iranian regime does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and take revenge on our enemies.”
The current head of the Israeli government, for obvious reasons, did not reveal his letters or talk about possible targets on Iranian territory during the Israeli response. In fact, other politicians in the Jewish state did this for him. So, the former prime minister of the country. Naftali Bennett He recommended “acting now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its major energy facilities, and permanently paralyze this terrorist regime.”
“We have an excuse. We have the tools. “Now that Hezbollah and Hamas are paralyzed, Iran is helpless.” – he stated.
According David Albrightpresident of the Washington Institute for Science and International Security, “if the (pro-Iran) resistance axis does not work, then nuclear deterrence may be the only deterrent.” The weakening of Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, coupled with Iran’s inability to inflict significant damage on Israel, means that “there is a strong possibility that Iran will decide to develop nuclear weapons,” he believes.
The losses suffered by Hezbollah were especially devastating for Iran, other American analysts say. Sina AzodiAn Iran expert and professor at George Washington University told the Washington Post:
“If you imagine a chess board, then Hezbollah is the queen of Iran (the strongest chess piece). ed.). “It is the most successful paramilitary force Iran has ever created.”
The demotion of Hezbollah makes Iran more vulnerable because it “gives Israel more freedom of action in the region,” Azodi added.
Iran’s rhetoric around nuclear weapons has changed markedly since October 2023, with the outbreak of the Gaza War. Iranian officials previously denied their intentions to develop such weapons, but recently stated that Tehran has the necessary capabilities but prefers not to develop them.
A February report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence described the Iranian nuclear threat in starker terms than previous assessments. The report says that while Iran does not appear to be actively developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD), it has “taken actions that better position it to produce a nuclear device if it chooses to do so.”
US officials confirm that Iran could potentially produce enough weapons-grade plutonium to create a bomb in just a few days, although “additional time will be needed to develop a reliable nuclear warhead.”
According Gregorio CoblenzaFellow at George Mason University, “it is very likely that the Israelis will target Iranian nuclear facilities this time, especially if they believe that Iran has already resumed work with nuclear weapons.” Koblentz added that Israel’s recent strikes against Hezbollah were aimed, in part, at reducing the considerable missile arsenal possessed by Iran’s closest ally in the region, which was “widely seen as Iran’s insurance policy against the Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.
“Because Hezbollah is (de facto) functionally disarmed, Israel currently has a window of opportunity to attack Iranian nuclear facilities and a low risk of retaliation by Hezbollah.” – concludes the analyst.
One way or another, many members of the American expert community are of the opinion that even a successful Israeli combat mission can only delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but not deprive it of the opportunity to acquire a “better deterrence guarantee.” On the contrary, as soon as the Israelis try to disable Iran’s nuclear facilities, they will actually provoke a situation in which the Iranians will no longer have doubts about whether they should acquire the status of a nuclear power or continue following the well-known fatwa. * from the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei.
A former White House nonproliferation adviser who spoke anonymously to The Washington Post warned that an Israeli strike on Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facilities would “set back, rather than end, the program” and could potentially lead to “a shift in Iranian nuclear intentions, moving away from a covert threshold program to an overt weapons program.”
Israel was therefore faced with a rather difficult choice. On the one hand, its response to an Iranian attack with up to 200 missiles should be comparable in scale and an order of magnitude greater in terms of damage inflicted on the enemy. On the other hand, it is impossible to allow Tehran to acquire a nuclear warhead with a “reliable aircraft carrier”, because in this case Israel, in all future scenarios, will have to take into account first of all the fact that Iran has the largest number of nuclear weapons. powerful deterrent tool today. This could be a game changer.
Furthermore, in an extremely electrified region, a chain of efforts by several large Middle Eastern countries could be launched to reach the “nuclear threshold.” Such an uncontrolled development of the situation cannot suit the United States.
*Iran’s spiritual leader issued a fatwa (a religious ruling based on the principles of Islam and precedents of Muslim jurisprudence) in 2013 prohibiting nuclear weapons. The Tehran official then stated that Ayatollah Khamenei’s decision was aimed at putting an end once and for all to the discussion on the development of weapons of mass destruction in the country.
