Advances in public health and medicine during the 20th century led to an increase in life expectancy of up to three years per decade in countries with the oldest populations, leading to predictions so optimistic that the majority of children born in the 21st century would live to be 100 years old. years or more. A work published this Monday in the magazine Natural aging shows that this trend has changed and that the rate at which people with very long life expectancies are increasing in developed countries is slowing.
“Humanity benefits from the long lives that medicine and public health have created for us, but the influence of disease reduction on life extension is diminishing,” lead author Stuart Jay Olshansky tells elDiario.is . “We do not expect life expectancy at birth to increase rapidly in the future, but we can expect medical advances to continue. The goal of these advances should be to extend healthy lives rather than trying to make us live longer. »
The work is based on the analysis of mortality data from nine regions of the world over the last three decades, including Spain. The authors analyzed data from Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Australia, France, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden and our country to compare them with those of United States between 1990 and 2019. And what they saw was that the increase in life hope life expectancy slowed around the world and declined significantly in the United States.
Less increase in longevity compared to 2010
The date that seems to mark a turning point is 2010: data indicates that children born after this year have a lower probability of reaching 100 years of age than expected and of continuing to increase at the same rate (probability of 5.3% for women ). and 1.8% probability for men), or at least less than what they would have had if the old projections held. By region, the highest probability by country that children born in 2019 will survive to age 100 occurred in Hong Kong, where 12.8% of women and 4.4% of men are expected to reach 100 in their life, while in the United States, the probability of children born in 2019 surviving to 100 is highest in Hong Kong. The percentage of people likely to live to 100 is much lower: 3.1% of women and 1.3% of men.
In Spain, the estimated percentage of survival to age 100 in 2019 is 4.4% for women, 1.6% for men and 3.1% for the entire population.
In Spain, the estimated percentage of survival to age 100 in 2019 is 4.4% for women, 1.6% for men and 3.1% for the general population, explains Olshansky based on human mortality data (mortality.org). These are higher figures than those of 2010, but not as high as one might have expected after the same progression. “Spain is experiencing exactly the same phenomenon as the rest of the developed world, this is reflected in all our figures,” he emphasizes.
“The data in several figures demonstrate that the increase in life expectancy has slowed at a time when life-prolonging technologies have advanced; The evidence presented is definitive,” says the lead author. “Where there is uncertainty is in the future, but only with regard to the influence of science on the extension of life, which cannot be predicted in advance. » In this sense, the authors emphasize that for this trend to be on the rise again, major institutional changes will have to occur, particularly in retirement planning and life insurance prices.
If it were a 100 meter race, there would be more and more people crossing the finish line in 10 seconds, but the rate at which records are broken is declining.
Concerning the striking data from the United States, the authors believe that it is mainly due to two reasons: subgroups of the population that do not have adequate access to health care, wealth, diet of good quality and beneficial social determinants of health. “We also have an obesity epidemic worse than most countries,” Olshansky points out.
More people crossing the finish line, fewer records
One point that needs to be clarified about this study, cautions the lead researcher, is that one should not confuse the increase in life expectancy at birth in countries with long-lived populations with the expected increase in the absolute number of people reaching older ages in this country. century.
“The increasing prevalence of older cohorts will accelerate worldwide during this century as a by-product of the increasing age structure of larger birth cohorts born during the 20th century and in due to the improvement in survival until extremely old age thanks to advances in medicine. » explain the authors. “For example, we can reliably predict a large increase in the world’s centenarian population in 2042, as this will mark the 100th anniversary of the start of the global era. baby boom after the Second World War. » In other words, if it were a 100 meter race, there would be more and more people crossing the finish line in 10 seconds, but the rate at which records are broken is decreasing and every tenth reduction costs a lot more work.
For Manuel Collado, expert researcher in aging at the National Center for Biotechnology (CNB-CSIC), this result seems a logical consequence of the development and expansion of useful interventions to improve the general health of the population in the absence of radical innovation. “To think that the progression of the increase in life expectancy will continue to be sustained is like thinking that in a few decades the 100 meter record will lead us to cross the finish line before the start,” quips -he. Vaccines, antibiotics and other interventions have produced notable changes in the survival of populations, remember, and this, as the article says, has spread to many populations without those who have already developed Longer life expectancy does not manage to increase longevity at the same time. than before.
Thinking that the increase in life expectancy was going to be maintained is like thinking that the 100 meter record was going to be negative.
Manuel Collado
— CNB-CSIC Researcher
Mª Ángeles Durán, professor and member of the Aging Research Group (GIE-CSIC), emphasizes that the study does not refer to the general increase in life expectancy, but to access to super- longevity, and focuses on highly developed countries that They are already currently achieving high longevity rates. “Fortunately, in my opinion, this century will still see significant improvements in life expectancy in less developed countries and at earlier stages of the life cycle,” he emphasizes.
The specialist believes that it would be appropriate to reflect on the need to modify institutions, pensions and the price of insurance and the fact that with the productivity of current economies it is not possible to guarantee a good level of life to populations who live from They are on average 90 years old and only work for the market for 45 years, or half of their life cycle. “For there to be a favorable radical change, a technological change and a change in economic organization generating resources to meet new demands must be simultaneous,” he believes.
Fortunately, this century will still see significant improvements in life expectancy in less developed countries.
Mª Ángeles Durán
— Professor and member of the Research Group on Aging (GIE-CSIC)
On the other hand, as the authors point out, the current objective of the World Health Organization (WHO) is not to add years to life, but to have a better life in the years lived. “That is to say, guaranteeing, which does not happen now, that very advanced ages are lived with physical, mental, emotional and social quality.” “On a personal note,” Durán concludes, “I have no interest in being a centenarian, but rather in living the last stage well, with quality of life, independence and the freedom to abandon it when I deem it appropriate. »
“The work shows the process of slowing growth in life expectancy experienced by many countries in recent years,” said Diego Ramiro, director of the Institute of Economics, Geography and Demography of the CSIC, in declarations to the SMC. “It would have been desirable for them to delve deeper into the reasons for these obstacles to accelerated growth in life expectancy,” he underlines. “More precisely, in inequalities within the same society in differences in life expectancy according to education level or socio-economic level which can lead to growth in life expectancy at different rates in each population group. »
