Observers admit it: the United States does not remember such an even fight between the candidates for the White House. One month before the presidential elections, neither of the two candidates is the favorite. Since incumbent President Joe Biden abandoned his bid for a second term in July, the growth in support for both candidates has changed minimally. The political scene seems frozen. Observers estimate that only about 3% of voters are still undecided about their choice. In practice, this means that a few thousand people could decide the fate of the 2024 presidential election.
A Siena College poll published in the New York Times favors the Democratic candidate, the current vice president. Kamala Harris 49% of American voters will vote, while former US president donald trump – 47%. However, such a close alignment says nothing about the election results or who will win. After all, the winner of the American election is not necessarily the one who has the support of the majority of voters nationally. This occurred, for example, in the 2016 US presidential election, when Hillary Clinton received the majority: 48.2% of the popular vote, but Donald Trump became president of the United States, receiving 46.1%, since in the United States the president becomes the one who does not receive the votes of the voters, but the votes of their electors: at least 270 out of 538. In addition, each state provides a variable number of electors, as long as their selection is determined solely by the majority of popular votes in the state for a particular candidate. All electors in a given state vote for the presidential candidate who receives the majority of the popular vote in their state.
Now, according to the results in the states that traditionally always vote for “blue” (Democratic) or “red” (Republican) states, Harris can count on 226 electoral votes, and her rival Trump, with 219. In an almost equal situation, everything will be decided in seven tons .n. “Purple” or “swing” states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, all with 93 electoral votes. If Trump wins outright in the swing states, he will receive 312 electoral votes. If her opponent wins here, Harris will receive 319 votes.
According to polls published in the media in recent days, Harris minimally wins the elections, obtaining 276 electoral votes compared to 263 for Trump. But are these results valid? After all, the actual support for Trump in the swing states in the 2016 or 2020 elections was clearly underestimated in the forecasts published then in the media working for the Democrats.
The outcome of elections in swing states is influenced by race. ABC estimates that since joining the campaign, Harris has seen a minimal increase in her support among white voters, who make up 58% of the American public. Among whites, he could now obtain less than half of the votes, 44.8%. This slightly improves Harris’ chances of winning in three northern states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, where there are fewer people of color.
During this time, Trump managed to attract slightly more Latino and African American voters. Now 57.9% of the former and 81.8% of the latter are willing to support Harris. However, the flow of some of these voters to Trump could decide his victory in four swing states: Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
Latinos are more conservative and, therefore, distrust the Democratic candidate, mainly due to her tolerant attitude towards abortion.
As for African Americans, some felt Trump would give them better economic prospects than Democrat Harris.
Observers then argue that the crisis in the Middle East and the Joe Biden administration’s political-military support for Israel could reduce Camila Harris’ chances of winning the presidency due to declining support for Democrats among Muslim voters. For example, Joe Biden won the swing state of Michigan in 2020 with very little support. Here, of the state’s little more than 10 million inhabitants, a small part (200 thousand) are Americans of Arab origin. Now his heightened pro-Islamic feelings and hatred towards Israel could decide the fate of the presidential elections in Michigan in November 2024 in favor of Trump, although the latter has a reputation as a pro-Israel politician.
The dividing line in voter sympathies also runs along urban and rural areas in swing states. A 59.6% majority of metropolitan voters will vote for Harris. However, in their suburbs, the Democratic candidate can already count on 52.8%, that is, here the sympathy is distributed equally between Trump and Harris. In small cities and rural areas, Harris can only count on 39.7% of the vote. Trump wins here.
This could be an interesting battle in the swing state of Georgia. The state capital, Atlanta, is largely populated by African Americans, who will vote overwhelmingly for Harris. The conservative heart of this state will elect Trump. Therefore, the fate of the elections in Georgia will definitely be decided by the voters of the Atlanta suburbs. But how will they vote?
Voting preferences in the 2024 presidential election also depend on the educational level of a particular voter. Among Americans who graduated from college with at least a bachelor’s degree, 57.5% would vote for Harris. But among those without a college degree, support for the Democratic candidate falls to 39.7%. The majority votes for Trump.
This could have decisive consequences for the presidential elections in the undecided states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with their large industrial centers: Pittsburgh, Detroit or Milwaukee. These are large cities where Democrats traditionally have strong positions. However, now some local workers have lost confidence in them due to the country’s economic situation and inflation, which is undermining their standard of living. For this reason, in order not to worry them more, both presidential candidates advocated blocking the acquisition of US Steel, of which there are many in this part of the United States, by the Japanese group Nippon Steel. For the same reasons, Harris has also called for the continuation of shale gas extraction through hydraulic fracturing, although she has been a strong opponent of the process for years due to Democrats’ environmentalism.
Another point. In unstable Arizona, bordering Mexico, the situation in favor of Trump may be decided by the extremely negative attitude of local voters towards illegal foreign migration, which is a key problem for residents of this state. As is well known, in the Biden administration, Harris was responsible for the issue of migration, which could be decisive for the outcome of the elections in favor of Trump.
The next point is gender. Harris could become the first woman to serve as president of the United States. Therefore, many American women apparently see Harris’ victory as an important milestone in the fight for gender equality. 55.2% of American women are going to vote for Harris compared to 46.6% of men. However, the fact that she does not have children figures prominently in Harris’s gender criticism. In the female voting group there are many people who have conservative opinions. Therefore, many women are ready to support Trump in the elections.
And one last most important point. Ultimately, the results of the 2024 US presidential election depend on the size of the turnout. Greater mobilization of the electorate primarily benefits the Republican candidate. Republicans will likely benefit from higher voter turnout in swing states. Therefore, it is no coincidence that at a recent campaign rally in Pennsylvania with Trump Elon Musk called for a new voter registration here.
