The fact that a week has passed since Iran’s attack on Israel and The Jewish state has not yet responded worries American leaders. April’s response, rather symbolic, arrived within four days and it seemed to be more about pride than wanting to do harm. Now things have changed. First because Israel no longer faces the threat of Hamas and Hezbollahor not with the same intensity. Secondly, because after the military successes against the two terrorist groups, the government of Netanyahu He seems ready for anything.
Even if the president Biden has already publicly and privately demanded that Do not attack energy or nuclear installationsthe truth is that their administration is aware that it has no say in this matter. They know that There will be a response and all they ask is that it be proportional and let them know in advance.
This is not what has happened with Israel’s actions in recent weeks and At the White House, they are considering an ultimatum in which they would refuse to support Israel to a possible third attack by Iran if its advice is not followed now and if the feared escalation materializes.
Of course, Israel knows it’s just words. He feels that, no matter what Biden’s advisers and aides say, the president would be forced to take his side in the event of an open conflict. It cannot be otherwise. What the IDF is calculating is the extent to which it needs its ally for this response. The idea is to respond alone and without depending on anyone, but to do this you must first define the objectives. And if we are talking about nuclear installations, American aid can be decisive.
Fear that Iran will change its nuclear doctrine
On this point, there seems to be a consensus within the Biden administration: If Israel wants to attack Iran’s nuclear program, it will have to bear the consequences alone. this can be very serious for the region and for the planet. Faced with advice from former President Trump – “first, let them take care of the nuclear issue and then take care of the rest,” he said in an interview on Tuesday – at the House Blanche, it is estimated that The risk of attacking uranium enrichment plants is enormous, whether they succeed or fail.
His position is based on the conviction that Iran respects agreements and commitment not to produce nuclear weapons with this enriched uranium. In fact, in 2003, the Ayatollah himself Ali Khamenei issued a “fatwa” in which the use of nuclear weapons was considered a sin.
An Iranian missile system is displayed next to a banner with an image of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the late Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah on a street in Tehran.
Reuters
What they fear in the United States is that Israel will attack the underground facilities of the gigantic Natanz factory and cannot reach the depth at which the laboratories are located, estimated at the equivalent of three floors of a building.
We know, from what happened in Beirut during the attack which cost the life of Hassan Nasrallah, that Israel possesses this type of “drill” weapons, but it is not certain that they can go that low. In any case, even if they did arrive, we also don’t know how successful such an attack would be or whether it would be as easy for Iran to avoid in the future as to moving everything further underground.
What they think they know in Washington is that, If Iran is threatened and defeated, completely change its military strategy and considers it inevitable to resort to nuclear weapons to guarantee its existence.
According to US intelligence estimates, Iran could obtain enough enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb in a few days…what would take the longest, perhaps months, is assembling the projectile.
If Khamenei believes that Israel has gone too far in its response, not only would he permanently ban any international review of his program, but he would probably use it for military purposes… and no one wants a theocratic regime to have ‘a mass weapon. destruction at least, perhaps, of time, of Russia. The Kremlin is known for sending nuclear advisers to Tehran. It is not clear for what purpose, but it is not difficult to guess.
Attack now or wait for Trump?
The problem is that Israel does not trust Iran’s word. They believe that whether they attack or not, sooner or later they will end up using the uranium for destructive purposes. And obviously, they will be the first to be threatened. They may be confronted a historic opportunity to delay said program long enough enough to think about a possible change of regime and a more cordial relationship with the new leaders. If uranium enrichment facilities are not attacked now, this will not be possible in the future. Never in the last two decades have they been in such an advantageous position.
Now, to make sure the attack succeeds, Israel would need the support of much more advanced U.S. military technology. A combined attack by the two forces could disrupt the Iranian program and delay it indefinitely.
Faced with the possibility of attacking, failing to succeed and being exposed to possible nuclear escalation, it may be that Netanyahu prefers to wait for the US elections November. If Trump is so convinced – he was not during his first term – that Iran must be attacked where it hurts most, it is understandable that the United States would collaborate on such a mission.
Another thing would be a victory for Harriswho currently has practically the same chances as his rival of winning the elections. In this case, Israel would have to fend for itself for at least four more years. And that’s what’s not clear if they can afford it. The current situation of mutual distrust between the two allies does not help either side: the United States needs to know what Israel is going to do to protect its displaced soldiers throughout the region. Israel, for its part, would do well not to face a journey of this magnitude in complete solitude.
THE The most discussed alternative would be to attack refineries or power plants. and thus destroy the Iranian economy. In Washington, this idea is not unanimous either, because they believe that Tehran could also consider it an “existential threat” and we are in the same situation. They prefer something similar to April, perhaps a little more energetic, but it does not cause irreparable damage and does not turn Iran into a wounded country uncontrollable in its rage. Democrats believe that, for better or worse, they can still control the ayatollahs in some areas. A devastating attack would completely shatter any bridge of understanding.
