THE regional elections This Sunday, September 1, in Saxony and Thuringia, two Länder in the east of the country, They could trigger a political earthquake in Germany because of High rise of the extreme right And to the poor situation of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), from the Chancellor Olaf Scholzand the two other coalition parties in Berlin, the Greens and the liberal FDP.
In Thuringia, the extreme right Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by the most radical leader of the party, Bjorn Hockeis leading the polls with around 30% voting intention and clearly ahead of the closest competitor, which is the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) that is about 21%.
In Saxony, the AfD is in second place in the polls, also with values around 30 percent, slightly below the CDU.
Meanwhile, the three parties in Scholz’s coalition They are lagging behind and even risk being excluded from the two regional parliaments..
The SPD has in both states about 6.0%, barely above the 5.0% threshold.
Alternative for Germany (AfD) party co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla stand next to Joerg Urban, AfD party’s top candidate for the Saxony regional elections, during a campaign event for the Saxony regional elections in Dresden, Germany, August 29, 2024.
REUTERS
Germany
In Thuringia, surveys suggest that, unless there is a last minute rebound, The Greens and the FDPwith 3.3% and 2.8% respectively, they stay outsidewhile in Saxony the Greens, with 5.5%have a chance to save themselves and the FDP, with 1.1%is virtually “hopeless.”
For The Greens And the FDP It would not be unusual to be excluded from a regional parliament.especially in East Germany. For the SPDinstead, This would be the first time in history that this would happen. and, if all three are left out, it could end up calling into question even theto Scholz’s own coalition.
BSW, another populist party
On the other hand, a new populist party – the Sarah Wagenknecht League named after its founder– complicated the forecasts regarding the possible formation of a government in the two federal states.
THE BSW is the result of a split from the La Izquierda party in which Sarah Wagenknecht has always represented the most linked to the group’s Marxist origins. Wagenknecht was the leader of a group whose name, Communist Platform, was already a declaration of principles.
Wagenknecht justified his decision to leave La Izquierda at the time and found a new group arguing that the party had focused on defending the interests of alternative urban elites and had forgotten its traditional basiscomposed of low-income workers.
He also pointed out that the loss of left-wing votes to the AfD in the East showed that the party had moved away from the concerns of the people.
Similarities between BSW and AfD
BSW agrees with AfD on some issues such as Rejection of military aid to Ukraine -analyst Sascha Lobo recently wrote that with the addition of the two parties, Vladimir Putin would have an absolute majority in Thuringia and Saxony- and also the rejection of the some policies to combat climate changeIn Thuringia and Saxony, the BSW came third in the polls with 18% and 13% respectively.
A recent study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) showed that The policies of the BSW and the AfD have similarities in several aspects. Both organizations are in favor of limiting migration, increase evictions of those who have unsuccessfully applied for asylum and establish stricter border controls from Germany, among other topics.
Abnormal coalitions
He Rise of AfD and BSWand the fall of the SPD, the FDP and the left stresses that after the elections there will be difficult situations in the two parliaments which impose form abnormal coalitions.
The left can stay outside in Saxonyfor the first time in the East, where the polls give him 3.9% . In Thuringia – where he currently leads a coalition with Bodo Ramelow as Prime Minister – at 13.4%less than half of the elections five years ago werewhen it exceeded 30%.
THE Christian Democratic Union o The CDU’s principle – set out in a resolution approved by a federal party congress – Do not form coalitions with the left or the AfD. Concerning the BSW, disagreements arose between the federal leadership of the party and the regional leaders.
Friedrich Merz, chairman of the CDU described Wagenknecht as a far-leftist on certain subjects and far right in othersBut the leaders of Thuringia and Saxony may be forced to talk and reach an agreement with the AfD.
In Saxony, however, it cannot be ruled out that the current coalition, chaired by the Christian Democrat Michael Kretschmer and which also includes the SPD and the Greens, get a small majority. In Thuringia, on the other hand everything indicates that the leader of the CDYou, Mario Voigt, will have to seek an agreement with BSW.
