The rapid increase in the intensity of the latest hurricanes puts climatologists and authorities on alert, as well as the residents who suffer from these gigantic storms. More than a million people in the state of Florida, whose west coast is awaiting the arrival of Hurricane Milton this week, have been ordered to evacuate.
As experts warn of an increase in storm intensity linked to the climate crisis, the U.S. National Weather Service has declared Milton the third fastest-growing storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean.
How strong is Hurricane Milton?
With much of the southern United States still recovering from the damage caused by Hurricane Helene, Milton’s rapid advance caught many off guard.
In just one day, Milton went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, the maximum possible, with winds of up to 185 miles per hour as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico toward the heart of Florida.
The storm experienced “rapid intensification,” known as increases of at least 56 kilometers per hour over 24-hour periods. Milton’s dizzying pace exceeded that parameter, increasing his speed by 145 kilometers per hour over a 25-hour period, according to data from the research group Climate Central.
This created one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the United States, even after Milton was downgraded to a Category 4 storm, coinciding with Tuesday’s evacuations in the Tampa area. .
“It’s astronomical proportions,” said Florida meteorologist Noah Bergren. “This hurricane is approaching the mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere can produce into ocean water.”
Why did he grow up so quickly?
The strength that hurricanes acquire when they form is linked to many factors, such as thunderstorms or wind shear, due to their ability to modify the complex circular organization of a storm.
But the heat of the oceans and atmosphere is a determining factor in its rapid intensification. Higher air and water temperatures provide more energy to the storm, speed its rotation and increase steam, water which then falls on communities in torrential rain and causes flooding.
The Gulf of Mexico reached record temperatures for much of this year, with waters that during the summer were like those in a bathtub. The heart of Milton passes through exceptionally warm waters, with temperatures 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above average for this time of year. Like Helen just two weeks ago, Milton is overfed by excessive heat.
What causes such intense storms?
There have always been hurricanes in this part of the world, but scientists are convinced that global warming from the burning of fossil fuels is the most likely reason for the increase in speed, intensity and intensity. humidity from storms.
According to a study published in 2023, the probability of a rapid intensification of an Atlantic tropical cyclone is today 29% higher than during the period between 1971 and 1990.
According to other research, natural variability alone is not enough to explain the increase in the number of rapidly intensifying storms: climate change must be blamed.
Milton joins the growing list of storms that have quickly turned into catastrophic and life-changing hurricanes in recent years: Hurricane Harvey (2017); Hurricane Laura (2020); Hurricane Ida (2021); and Hurricane Ian (2022), with two independent cycles of rapid intensification. Since 2017, the United States has been hit by as many Category 4 or 5 Atlantic hurricanes as in the previous 57 years.
“When it comes to extreme weather events, what we’re seeing in the United States is a really extraordinary and quite regionally deadly and destructive period,” says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “Frankly, in what has happened in recent weeks, there are traces of the climate crisis everywhere. »
What risks do citizens face today?
For residents of West Coast Florida, a state that has multiplied in population over the past decade, the double blow from Helen and Milton will have calamitous consequences and will require months, if not years, to start over and rebuild. broken lives.
As global temperatures continue to rise, the scale of the climate crisis and its most intense storms will only increase in the long term. This is not just more death and destruction, but a fundamental shift in what places are considered “safe” to live. With climate impacts affecting regions that are supposed to be peaceful, increased financial losses will cause many insurers to stop offering coverage to businesses and households.
The climate crisis ended up infiltrating the US presidential election campaign in the most spectacular and disastrous way.
When will Milton make landfall?
Milton is expected to make landfall on Florida’s central Gulf Coast Wednesday evening. Although its intensity is likely to vary, meteorologists warned Tuesday that Milton would remain “an extremely dangerous hurricane” until it makes landfall.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Milton was about 835 kilometers southwest of Tampa, with sustained winds of about 250 kilometers per hour. After postponing an overseas trip to monitor the hurricane’s progress from the White House, President Joe Biden warned that “this could be one of the worst storms to hit Florida in 100 years.”
Translated by Francisco de Zárate
