Orange, BNP Paribas, Air France-KLM and Carrefour are among the thirty French companies which will be affected by the temporary “tax” which the new French government, led by the conservative Michel Barnier, will approve in the Council of Ministers. this Wednesday. While waiting for the announcement of the finance bill (PLF) this afternoon, what we know for the moment is that the executive plans to increase corporate tax from 25% to 33 .5% for companies with revenues exceeding 1 billion euros. To this it must be added that it is also possible that an additional tax of 8% on the nominal value of the purchase of shares is included in the PLF.
Thus, a large number of companies that are part of the Cac 40 stock index will be affected by these temporary new valuations and, although the details are not yet known, leading private analysts have already made their predictions on how this will will affect the measure to company profits.
In a report from Goldman Sachs, to which elEconomista.es had access, economists assure that the increase in the tax rate for large companies “will have a limited impact”. Indeed, these multinationals “tend to generate most of their revenues outside France”. Specifically, The Cac 40 only generates 15% of its revenues on French territory. Thus, even if corporate taxes were increased by eight points, “we estimate that its profits would only decrease between 0.5% and 1%”, they say in the report.
In the case of companies whose capital is more national and generate more than half of their revenues in France (around 56%), their profits “could fall between 4% and 5% due to the increase in taxes”.
Other analysts like Barclays They assure that the negative impact of these “taxes” would be around 2.5% and at UBS, it is estimated that, in the event that this new temporary rate is reflected in international profits, the losses caused could amount to 9%.
What is clear is that political and budgetary uncertainty will continue to weigh on investor confidence in France, warns Barclays. The entity calculates that this temporary tax increase will impact earnings per share growth by 2.5 points of the Cac 40, which will be reduced from 9.4%, to 6.5%.
For French banks BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale, Barclays analysts estimate that an increase in the tax rate would wipe out up to 4% of earnings per share. “An increase of 1 point in the corporate tax rate in France would have an impact of 0.3% for BNP and 0.5% for Société Générale and Crédit Agricole SA,” Barclays said in a note. to its customers. However, the calculations assume that this tax will only concern profits made on French territory.
The Paris Stock Exchange did not have a very favorable start to the year either. In mid-May, The CAC 40 has started to fall since the results of the European elections and continued to decline after the early elections. Constant political and economic uncertainty means that, since the start of the year, the French stock index has increased by 0.4% compared to 15% for the Ibex.
Tax on families who own Chanel or L’Oréal
But large companies are not the only ones to see their taxes increase in 2025 in France, their owners will also benefit from an extraordinary tax. The Executive intends to put in place a rate that would triple the tax on large fortunes and property.
As confirmed by the French Minister of the Budget (the equivalent of the head of the Treasury in Spain), Laurent Saint-Martin (macronist), the profile of the “lucky French” who will make this “exceptional contribution” with the tax on large fortunes will be taxed income per year “greater than 500,000 euros”, which means, according to the minister, around 65,000 families, or 0.3% of the 20 million French taxpayers who pay income tax.
Among these names are, for example, Bernard Arnault, the richest man in France, who controls the luxury goods group LVMH, that is to say the umbrella under which Louis Vutton, Loewe and Givenchy are held.
On the other hand, we must also talk about Liliane Bettencourt, the heir to the L’Oréal cosmetics group. Also from the owner of Hermès, Axel Dumas, Gérard Mulliez, boss of Alcampo or even Alain and Gérard Wertheimer, owners of Chanel.
As published by elEconomista.es, the draft budget that Barnier will present next week to the National Assembly (Lower House) proposes a saving of 60 billion, of which 40 thousand will come from expenses, while the remaining 20 billion will come from these expenses . temporary “taxes”.
