More than ten days after the Iranian attack on Israeli soil, the Netanyahu government has not yet decided on the modalities or timetable of its response. Last Thursday’s War Cabinet meeting ended without final conclusions. Although previous reports suggested that the Prime Minister and Defense Minister would be given carte blanche, Yoav Gallantto proceed as they deemed appropriate, the truth is that the issue was not even raised.
That didn’t stop Gallant from declaring at the end of the meeting that Israel’s response would be “deadly” and would come “when the ayatollahs least expect it”. After the conversation between Netanyahu and Biden last Wednesday – they had not spoken in weeks – optimism is growing in the United States that the delay in the attack could be due to a containment exercise and eavesdropping what the Democratic administration is asking for.
At the White House, they don’t want to hear about massacres of civilians, attacks on nuclear targets, or attacks on power plants and oil refineries that could send prices skyrocketing around the world and affect decisively the electoral campaign in favor of Donald Trump.
However, if they stood out for something Flashes, Lloyd, Sullivan and the rest of the assistants Biden This is due to his unjustified optimism.
For months, Netanyahu He tells them one thing and then often does the opposite. There is no reason to believe that it will now be the other way around, especially since the Israeli prime minister would benefit from a Republican victory in November. Most likely, Israel is waiting because it wants to take advantage, as Gallant said, of the surprise factor… and because the attack is going to be much more studied and, therefore, It will be more energetic than that of April 19..
Putin and Pezeshkian throw flowers at each other
They also think so in Tehran, where they went into a kind of panic attack. They know they will attack them and seek a mixture of diplomacy and deterrence to avoid the consequences of their own offensive. At first, the president Massoud Pezeshkian He met his Russian counterpart this Friday Vladimir Putin as part of the cultural forum organized in Turkmenistan which brings together several of the highest leaders in the region.
Putin emphasized his idea of a “new world order” in the face of “Western arrogance” and invited Pezeshkian to the next meeting of the BRICS economic alliance, which will be held from October 22 to 24 in Kazan. Relations between the two countries have always been good, especially since they joined forces in Syria to repel the Islamic State and install the dictator. Bashar al-Assad in power.
This military coalition has expanded to other areas: Iran has sent drones and missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine; In return, Russia helps Iran with its nuclear program. Actually, The day before the attack on Israel, the Russian Prime Minister visited Tehran.
Kremlin spokesperson Dimitri Peskovassured that in Kazan there would be another meeting between the two leaders, during which bilateral relations would be discussed above all… but the general situation in the Middle East would also be discussed. Russia has repeatedly condemned Israel’s actions… even though Israel has consistently refused to sell weapons to Ukraine or take a position in this conflict. We will see how much patience Netanyahu lasts on this issue.
Arab countries distance themselves from the United States
While Pezeshkian seeks help in international forums and alliances, his government continues to use military threats as a deterrent. Despite fears of Mossad infiltration into the Iranian institutional fabric – which would have made the assassination of the Hamas leader possible – Ismail Haniyehin a Tehran hotel and on the eve of Pezeshkian’s inauguration – the Iranian discourse remains based on intimidation of the enemy and the appearance of military superiority which must be seriously doubted.
In addition to reminding Israel that any attack will be responded to “with unprecedented force,” the Iranian regime’s current goal is to restrict the United States’ regional allies – primarily Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf countries, but also Egypt and Jordan – to not cede their airspace in the event of Israeli retaliation and to make the deployment of American troops as difficult as possible. Otherwise, they say in Tehran, These countries will be considered complicit and will receive the same treatment as Israelsomething Pezeshkian had already alluded to in his speech two weeks ago to the United Nations.
Although the threat is very implausible, since Iran obviously does not have the means to attack so many different targets, the truth is that Arab countries are not willing to collaborate in one way or another to an Israeli attack. On the one hand, they would love it, since Iran is their great enemy, with these imperialist pretensions of the ayatollahs, but their public opinions, as subjugated as they are, would not tolerate it. Even Jordan said it had no problem helping Israel defend itself, but It’s another to collaborate in an attack..
The objective, in reality, is to soften the Israeli response, particularly with regard to a possible attack on oil platforms. There is real panic in the region because prices could spiral out of control, as these are countries whose economies depend almost exclusively on crude oil. This is exactly the same fear as the United States, but it is not sure that Israel stops and thinks about the consequences of this guy. Since October 7, Netanyahu has made it clear that decisions regarding his country are made at home. And it doesn’t seem like the best time to change tactics.
