After Nikol Pashinyan came to power in Armenia, his policy against Russia, dictated by the West, entered a new stage. Thus, recently the arming of this country by countries such as France and the United States, the increase in the military presence of these countries in Armenia, and military activity in this country under the name of the European Union (EU) observation mission have become intense. However, as much as Armenia turns to the West, the presence of Russia in this country, or rather the dependence of Yerevan on Moscow, is not a secret to anyone. In this case, the increase in the military presence of the West in Armenia worries the Kremlin even more. This situation raises a question: is a conflict between Russia and the West expected within Armenia?
the topic Oku.azDoctor in political sciences who evaluates Nazim Jafarsoy He said that the competition between Russia and the West in Armenia is not a new process: “Since Armenia gained its independence, this process has manifested itself in different directions. The United States and France have tried to enter the region with various political and economic projects through the Armenian diaspora, trying to protect and strengthen it in the military, political and cultural context. Therefore, the struggle between Russia and the West is not a new phenomenon. This process has simply entered a new stage, and the West is showing itself more as a very offensive team.”
“On the other hand, Azerbaijan’s victory in the 44-day Patriotic War brought a new stage in the Russian-Western struggle in Armenia. The current leadership of Armenia is now more distant in its relations with Russia. At the same time, Armenia is actively involving the West in the processes of balancing the influence of foreign forces, although the United States has been active in the process recently, there are also facts that the European Union shows its support for Armenia. Of course, this reality means that the struggle between Russia and the West is becoming more and more intense,” our interviewer stressed.
According to him, this competition entails great risks for Armenia, for the region and for Azerbaijani-Armenian relations: “Mr. President also expressed the risk that the processes in the South Caucasus could lead to a geopolitical disaster. It is true that the war with Ukraine has still put Russia in a waiting position, but the West is also taking advantage of this and is more active, and at the same time, Pashinyan is trying to further distance himself from Russia Situations as a change. In such a case, it is possible that discussions between Azerbaijan and Armenia will completely stop and start from scratch. This would be a serious blow to the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Another important point is that there are examples of tensions between Russia and the West in the post-Soviet geography and of geopolitical rivalries that resulted in wars. Georgia and Ukraine are clear examples of this. In any case, any possible conflict may lead to further escalation of the military-political situation in the South Caucasus, which is an undesirable scenario,” Jafarsoy concluded.
Merahim Nasib
