The latest analysis of the political situation in Israel was prepared for Newsru.co.il by political commentator Gabi Wolfson.
When the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proposed changing the name of the current war to “Renaissance War”, it almost symbolically marked the transition from one stage to another. “For a year we have killed our enemies with iron swords. Now the time has come for reactivation,” the head of Government explained to the citizens. And the Prime Minister wanted to emphasize one more important thing: you walked all this path, from the iron swords to the renaissance, with me. Or rather, behind me.
Netanyahu begins the second year of the war in an optimal position in terms of public status. The war, which began with a catastrophe that seemed to forever bury Netanyahu’s status as “Her Majesty’s Security,” gradually began to bring not only military and diplomatic victories, but also public relations and political victories. Few people know how to take advantage of opportunities better than Benjamin Netanyahu. And the most important thing in this situation is not to overdo it.
Meanwhile, the war continues. As of this writing, preparations are likely underway for an Israeli retaliatory strike against Iran. And this process, as it turned out, is not free of internal political context.
In this context, the ultra-Orthodox parties recalled the bill. Netanyahu promised to resolve the problem before the end of the month.
A trip by the Secretary of Defense to the United States is not always only diplomacy, not only negotiations, not only coordination of steps, but also politics. For many years, the issue of relations with the United States has been the direct responsibility of the Prime Minister, and each official visit to the United States requires the direct approval of the Prime Minister. This is doubly and triply true when it comes to a visit on the brink of a possible escalation with Iran, when it comes to a politician who in the United States is openly preferred to the prime minister as a figure to discuss trade issues.
Galant fully masters the subtleties of the political game. He had no intention of rejecting the visit initiated by the US Secretary of Defense and, at the same time, he absolutely did not want to appear as someone who was “digging” under the Netanyahu government, especially at a time when the popularity of the latter was growing. That is why he first put everything on the shoulders of his American colleagues, saying that they invited me and that I had nothing to do with it, and then, when Netanyahu vetoed this trip, he humbly accepted the prime minister’s decision. In the end, he has already received his share of public relations, the visit to the United States will take place sooner or later – sooner rather than later – and if Netanyahu wants to show who is boss in the house, that is, in the government, he should not be bothered .
Netanyahu, for his part, has once again shown that he knows how to take advantage of the situation. His authority had grown so much lately that he could afford to bang his fist on the table. (By the way, in another case, which we will talk about later, he literally punched.) The question of Galant’s visit, and to be precise, who the United States is negotiating with, is not just a question of respect and the like, accessories that are far from secondary in the Middle East. This is also the question of how decisions will be made about who represents Israel. But it’s also a question of who is perceived as the leader of the coalition. Netanyahu knows better than many others that there are no secondary issues in politics. Big defeats begin with small retreats.
The Biden administration is now in no position to confront Netanyahu over who he will send to the United States. When it comes to attacking Iran, Americans are, paradoxically, more dependent on Israel than the other way around. A regional war and skyrocketing oil prices are the last thing a Democratic administration needs less than a month before the election. In this situation, Biden, gritting his teeth, had to communicate with Netanyahu.
Galant will eventually travel to the United States in the coming days, but no longer as the one they wanted to communicate with in Washington, but as the one Netanyahu sent there. The difference is significant.
Once again the government is against the legal advisor
Events were held this week in Israel to commemorate the tragedy of October 7, 2023. A special government meeting also took place that became scandal number N between the government and its legal counsel. Gali Baarav-Miaroi. This time a scandal broke out over the screening of an uncensored film about the atrocities of Hamas terrorists in Israeli territory. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this film should be seen around the world. The ministers explained that they had long wanted to show the film to the entire world, but the government’s legal advisor was putting up obstacles. Netanyahu slammed his fist on the table and almost shouted that the film would be shown, Gali Baarav-Miara responded that the issue was never on his table for approval and that the path to a major scandal as a result of which Baarav-Miara left the La government meeting room was open.
Scandals with the legal advisor are a long-standing issue for this government. It seems that both sides have lost all desire to reach a normal mode of operation. The legal advisor refuses to avoid the rough edges; the government appears to be deliberately seeking them out. The solution to the problem would be a law that defines the powers and responsibilities of the legal advisor. The government can blame devious lawyers for obstructing the people’s elected representatives instead of helping resolve pressing issues. The legal advisor may accuse the government of ignoring the law and procedure. No one dares or will dare to fire Gali Baarav-Miara. The next scandal is a matter of time.
At the same meeting, the head of government proposed changing the name of the war. The meaning of this phrase has already been discussed. However, it seems that this proposal will remain up in the air. At least until the end of the war.
The events of October 7 were worthy, on the one hand, and proof of a division in society, on the other. Two commemorative ceremonies, the state one and the alternative one, are a clear example of this. And even the name the organizers of the alternative ceremony chose, national, seemed to specifically emphasize that there is a state and a nation, and they are not the same. There is no unity in society, as there never was. Meanwhile, the war continues.
Compulsory military service law until the end of the month?
The broad gesture of the ultra-Orthodox parties, which agreed to delay the approval of the law on compulsory military service in connection with the war, was short-lived. This week, the Yadut HaTorah party demanded that Benjamin Netanyahu take concrete steps to promote this law in the state budget. Netanyahu, completely uncharacteristically, promised to resolve the issue before the end of the month, that is, to pass the bill before the Knesset returns from its vacation.
At first glance, this promise seems strange, to say the least. Debate on the bill in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee continues and nothing predicts its imminent completion. There is no indication of a change in the position of the ultra-Orthodox parties, which would give reason to wait for the approval of a law that can pass the “examination” in the High Court.
However, there may be at least two scenarios that explain Netanyahu’s willingness to promise the rapid approval of such a law. First of all, there is a magic formula “the needs of the army”, which the head of the commission that drafts the law talks about: Yuli Edelstein. These “needs,” according to army officials, include recruiting up to 3,500 ultra-Orthodox men per year. This figure, as Netanyahu’s entourage can argue, will not be too strong a boost for Shas and Ya’adut HaTorah, throwing them out of the coalition. The reactions of the Haredim will be even more moderate, since they will not benefit from going to the polls.
But there is another scenario. I have no information confirming its validity. However, it cannot be ruled out. The Knesset will return from recess at the end of October. If you believe the words of the northern district commander. Ori GordinaAt the end of October, people in the north can start preparing to return home. Is it completely unrealistic for Netanyahu to end his operations in the north and south and, desperate to pass the conscription law, call elections? The probability is extremely low, but I wouldn’t say it’s zero. By the way, the opposition will be deprived of the opportunity to criticize the government for an insufficiently radical version of the bill. Our Home Israel party leader Avigdor Lieberman has repeatedly spoken in the past about the possibility of dissolving the Knesset in the fall. However, this scenario, like all others, depends on the course of military operations.
Day of Atonement and Superior Court decision
The High Court of Justice (High Court of Justice) has decided to allow gender-segregated prayers to be held in Tel Aviv. This is a precedent-setting verdict that overturns the Tel Aviv municipality’s decision to ban such prayer. As a compromise, it was decided to move the separation prayer from Zion Square to Gan Meir. During the trial, the judges repeatedly criticized the municipality’s intention to prohibit separate prayer. According to the judges, the Tel Aviv municipality attempted to discriminate against Orthodox Jews. “Saying, ‘I’m not against Orthodoxy, I’m against division,’ is like saying, ‘I’m not against religion, I’m just against the kippah,'” the judge said. Groskopf Offerone of the most liberal judges of the Supreme Court.
opposition leader Yair Lapidwho always considers himself a liberal, was apparently very upset by this judicial decision:
“We repeat and urge the liberal public not to give the riot instigators who started these sentences the fight they want. Don’t go protesting because that’s what you’re waiting for. It is better to ignore it. Let them stay there alone, focused on themselves.”
Not all representatives of the liberal public heeded the call of the head of the opposition. Writer Otsri Wizards published an entry on the microblog ”. In the context of this demonstration of “liberalism” and “respect for judicial decisions,” the organizers of the prayer announced the cancellation of the event. No comments needed.
