“Active today and tomorrow. Maximum red level. Image of the alert map in effect at 7:36 a.m. This is the warning that the National Meteorological Agency (AEMET) launched several times from its social networks early Tuesday October 29, the day of the flood caused by Dana which has already claimed 155 victims in the Valencian Community. The agency had also already forecast four days before very intense rains were expected. Why were strong measures only taken to warn the population late in the afternoon, when thousands of people were already trapped?
The head of climatology of this Valencian Community agency, José Ángel Núñez, calls for reflection on the issue. As he explains to elDiario.es, “now the priority is urgency, caring for and informing all people, and remaining careful because the storm is not over, the rains will continue, although on a smaller scale “.
However, he adds that it will then be necessary to make “a general reflection to know how a disaster of this magnitude in terms of loss of human life in 2024 was possible, also taking into account the fact that many victims were in areas Where almost there was no rain, which may have created a false sense of security, as torrential rain fell upstream.
Although AEMET more than respected the forecasts and warnings, according to Núñez, “in the face of such an enormous tragedy we cannot feel satisfied, we all have things to improve, but I don’t think anyone has hurts very much either”, while he insisted that the analysis of what happened and the possible improvements will come later because now “the important thing is to save the bodies, the mobility of people and to continue to monitor the evolution of DANA, which will persist throughout the week.”
According to him, it will be necessary to analyze why the various red level warning messages sent at 7:30 a.m., extended to the entire province at 9:30 a.m., did not penetrate: “There was no feeling of risk and it was extreme.” , the feeling of risk has not arrived and that should make us think. The Red Notice implies a very high level of risk for the population and it is recommended to take preventive measures and act according to the instructions of the authorities and only travel if strictly necessary. This is information found on our website and which we attach to each notice. “It is also a common alert system for all of Europe so that citizens know how to react in any community country.”
For this reason, he foresees that one of the challenges will be to ensure that these opinions reach society, “it may be necessary to involve educators, I don’t know if this will even be included as a topic, but it It is clear that education can be key, delivering simple, direct messages that everyone can understand.
Asked about the subsequent management of alerts, he explains that “AEMET does not manage emergencies, but rather gives alerts” and adds: “Alerts are given by the Generalitat with which we collaborate. The Generalitat convenes the Integrated Operational Coordination Center (Cecopi) in which we also participate, but we, as AEMET, do not have management capacity.
Regarding the influence of climate change in this episode, Núñez comments that no specific phenomenon can be linked to climate change “without an attribution study, which is something very complex and consists of doing simulations with different scenarios and to compare what has happened with what would happen. occurred in the different scenarios. However, he explains that “objectively, at present, we cannot conclude with certainty, but subjectively, there is no doubt that we are on a much warmer planet and that this increase in temperatures is linked to the human activity and this coincides with the phenomena that occur there. this has always been the case, what is happening is that now they are more energetic and more violent.
