“We are on track to peak all fossil fuels before 2030.” In autumn 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that coal, gas and oil consumption could stop growing in the coming years, without additional climate commitments from States. This unprecedented projection appears in the “World Energy Outlook” (WEO), the organization’s annual report, considered the bible of the energy sector.
“There is a taboo in the traditional energy sector against the suggestion that demand for the three fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) could be in permanent decline. explains Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. But according to new projections, this era of seemingly relentless growth is expected to end this decade. » It immediately points out that the projected drop remains far short of the efforts needed to limit warming to below 1.5°C, the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement.
A year later, as the organization prepares to publish the 2024 edition of the WEO on Wednesday, October 16, this announcement continues to generate debate. It especially fuels the criticism formulated by the sector since the publication by the IEA, in 2021, of its first roadmap towards carbon neutrality, a sign of its willingness to address the climate issue head-on and the necessary decarbonization of the sector.
“Analysis of current trends”
At the end of September, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – for which Fatih Birol worked for several years – reiterated that the exit from fossil fuels was an “fancy”. It’s no surprise that oil and gas company leaders are on the same page. “In the real world, the current transition is visibly failing”declared Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, in March, before an audience of industry representatives gathered in Texas, United States. Solar and wind energy still provide only a fraction of the world’s energy, despite considerable investments, he recalled, and the needs of Southern countries will increase significantly.
In the United States, the largest producer of oil and gas, Republican representatives have described the IEA as “the animator of the transition”. Experts such as Robert McNally, who has advised Republican elected officials, believe that the organization “deceives the world into believing” that demand for oil and gas will soon peak, and we denounce “the distortion and politicization of once respected forecasts”.
You have 69.05% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
