Kamala Harris And Donald Trump came last week to demand that the vote reach the White House thousands of kilometers from the presidential residence, in the same Wild West which, decades ago, counted for very little in the electoral battle: Arizona and Nevada , two states that saw their populations increase in a very short time and grew in importance until they became such decisive territories that they became a regular destination for both campaign groups during the sprint end of the electoral race.
So last week, Harris and Trump held several massive get-out-the-vote rallies in Nevada, with just over three million residents, and Arizona, with seven million residents.
Other neighboring states have doubled or tripled their populations, such as California and Texas, and award significantly more electoral delegates to the winner (54 and 40, respectively), but the winner in both is known in advance (Harris in the first and Trump in the first). the second). However, in Arizona and Nevada polls fail to predict a favorite that falls outside the study’s margin of error.
Very close race
In Nevada, the polling average puts Harris with 47.7% of the vote and Trump with 47.1%. That is, a handful of hundreds of ballots would decide the winner of the state based on the number 538.
In Arizona, for his part, Trump would obtain an advantage of five points over Harris (51% against 46%) if we look at the latest poll of the New York Timeswhich gives a completely opposite result to that of Wall Street Journal (48% for Harris and 46% for Trump).
Besides the symmetrical division of their voters, the two states share geographic characteristics – large desert areas and a few population centers like Las Vegas and Phoenix – and demographic characteristics – rapid population growth and an increase in Hispanics – and their electoral history, although different. . Initially, we assimilated: In Nevada, Democrats have won since 2008 by increasingly smaller margins.while in Arizona, Republicans had always triumphed until Biden narrowly won in 2020.
Nevada: 6 essential delegates
Of all the decisive states in these elections (Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia), Nevada is the one which provides the fewest delegates to the Electoral College, only 6 compared to 19 for Pennsylvania. But neither candidate can let it pass, especially since the deadline for voting by mail is already open.
Trump, aware of this, urged people to vote for him last week at a rally at a casino in Reno, the state’s second city after Las Vegas: “I only ask you one thing: vote. “Get out and vote”. In his 90-minute speech, the tycoon left a series of promises on two issues that define competition in this particular territory: the economy and oil.
“We will quickly become energy independent, as we were before, and make the United States, by far, the largest energy producer in the world. hydraulic fracturing, hydraulic fracturing and more hydraulic fracturing“, he assured after declaring that he would reduce environmental restrictions because there is a “golden liquid” under his feet.
Days later, Trump returned to Nevada to attend an event with businessmen from Las Vegas, a city that has one of its most famous skyscrapers and where he claimed to be “in touch.” with waiters and other workers.
Trump also gave voice to Hispanics protesting the rising cost of living in recent years. “It’s an incredible group of people. It’s an honor to have you by my side.they all told them.
Fight for Hispanics
Even though, according to a survey by Univision, the main Spanish-language television network in the United States, Harris enjoys 51% support among Hispanics, compared to 39% for Trump, the Republican is gaining more and more support among the Latino population. In fact, in some states like Florida it is one of the groups where it receives the most votes, a model that it also wants to reproduce in the West.
Even if Harris does not want to give up her advantage with Hispanics: a few days before the conservative’s visit, the Democrat also went to Las Vegas to participate in a meeting with citizens, broadcast in prime time by Univision and with simultaneous translation into Spanish. , a language increasingly spoken in Nevada as it is the fastest growing population (20% of current voters consider themselves Hispanic).
“It’s important that we recognize who this population of young people are who have been so productive and are willing to do whatever is necessary to comply with the law. “I think it should force us to agree that they should not live in fear and be able to obtain citizenship,” she said, when asked about the thousands of Latin American migrants who arrived decades ago with a protected status but who still do not have an American passport. .
Fixing the country’s “broken” immigration system, ensuring health coverage and protecting small businesses were the big promises Harris left behind.
At the same time, the Democratic campaign is investing in bilingual ads across the state. For example, in The world And The Suntwo newspapers widely read among Latinos, it is common to see advertisements with slogans such as “When we vote, we win” or “Vote for Democrats.”
Maricopa
For its part, about five hours by car, already in Arizona, is the county that focused the world’s attention for several days during the distressing 2020 count: Maricopa.
Like Nevada, Arizona is known for its desert areas and more than 60% of its population is concentrated in this single county located around the state capital, Phoenix, the fifth most populous city in the United States, ahead of other cities better known as Phoenix. Philadelphia or Dallas.
There, Republicans have won elections continuously since 2000, but by a smaller margin with each call: in 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton with 47% of the votes while in 2000 George W. Bush was imposed on Al Gore with 53%.
The change in trend was inevitable and was confirmed in 2020, when Biden obtained 50% of the vote to Trump’s 48%.
It was an agonizing recount, lasting several days, during which dozens of fanatics gathered outside polling stations to disrupt the process (some of whom would also participate in the storming of the Capitol as “Q-Shaman”) ), crowds of workers received threats and the company responsible for managing the voting systems filed a complaint against far-right media, accusing them of engaging in a scam.
Demographic change
The main explanation for Biden’s victory, however, lies in the demographic change that Phoenix has been experiencing for years, one of the fastest growing capitals due to the arrival of Latinos (more than 30% of the population) and of young people from California looking for a more affordable cost of living.
In 2000, Arizona distributed only 8 electoral delegates and in 2024 it will distribute 11, while other states like Pennsylvania went from 23 to 19 representatives during the same period.
In Arizona, moreover, the figure of John McCainRepublican candidate against Barack Obama in 2008 and representative of the most moderate wing of the Republican Party, is still very present to the point that there are three parties: “The Trump Republicans, the McCain Republicans and the Democrats”, according to an analysis by Noble Predictive Insights , a political polling company. headquartered in Phoenix.
The challenge for Harris and Trump in Arizona is therefore to convince the Republicans of McCain, who died in 2018, to accept the 11 delegates provided by the state.
“For us, as the United States, to maintain our status as the strongest democracy in the world, we need a healthy two-party system,” Harris said as she astutely appealed to undecided voters this weekend during from an event in Arizona.
Trump was there two days earlier and promised to “save” Arizona, a state bordering Mexico, from immigration “invasion.”
“I will save Aurora and all the invaded and conquered cities”he said, aware that immigration is among the main concerns of the inhabitants of this territory.
