Democrat Kamala Harris’ campaign has not one, but two Achilles heels. Three weeks before the elections, the latest survey published this weekend by the New York Times and Sienna College shows how Harris continues to have a support deficit among Latino voters and black men. These are two groups that already represented a challenge for the vice president when she assumed the candidacy this summer and which continue to resist her.
Harris continues to lead the national polls, but she is closely followed by Donald Trump: the Democrat is in the lead with an advantage of three percentage points over the average achieved by the New York Times (50% against 47%) and is reduced to 2.4% according to the global FiveThirtyEight survey (48.5% against 46.1%). It is in this very close race scenario that the Latino vote and that of African-American men can make the difference.
Although Harris continues to garner the majority of votes from the Black community, with 78% voting intention, this is far lower than her predecessor Joe Biden’s 90% in the 2020 election or 92%. ‘Hillary Clinton in 2016. In contrast, the percentage of blacks saying they will vote for Trump increases from 7% in 2016 to 15% in this election. The Republican not only managed to gain eight points, but he is draining a group of voters considered one of the pillars of the Democratic Party and solidifying a trend of gaining support within the black community.
Comments such as the former president’s denial that Harris was black or “black jobs” do not appear to prevent a certain percentage of black voters from supporting Trump. This trend is largely explained by the gender gap that exists, both within this group and overall, in support for Harris. While the Democrat enjoys broad support among black women, 83% according to the poll, Trump manages to garner as much as 20% support among black men.
Last Thursday, former President Barack Obama spoke directly to black men, telling them they need to stop the “excuses” and support Harris. “Part of these excuses make me think that you don’t like the idea of having a woman as president and are looking for alternative reasons to justify it,” Obama criticized, adding that “the women in our lives have supported us all this time.”
Trump’s penetration into this group was a fissure that Harris’ campaign team had already detected over the summer, when the vice president took over from Biden. Then, a survey conducted in August by Pew Research already showed that 79% of black women said they would vote for Harris, compared to 73% of black men. That support has now fallen to 70%, according to a New York Times poll. “I hear this every day in my environment and I understand a little about black men who support Trump. There is a sense that much of the aid is going to immigrants while there is still a historic debt owed to the African-American community. We were brought here by force and many black men feel that immigrants are receiving funds and things that we never received. They believe that these resources could be intended for the community,” explained Rael Jackson after the Democratic black caucus held in Chicago during the party’s National Convention.
This feeling of abandonment and this desire to do more for the community is also reflected in the latest survey carried out among New York Times. Among black voters, there is a feeling that Democrats have not kept the promises made, and this feeling is accentuated among men, where only 59% believe that Democrats keep their word. 24% of black men say they trust Republicans more, and this percentage reaches 40% among those under 30.
Although Harris generally enjoys greater support than Trump, when more specific issues need to be addressed, responses vary. 56% of black voters believe the United States should be less outward-looking and worry more about internal problems, a view that matches the handling of international policy promoted by Trump. Regarding immigration, one of the major issues of the campaign, 40% of black voters are in favor of building a wall with Mexico and 41% support the expulsion of illegal immigrants, which Trump has promised to several occasions to do in mass.
The other big key subject on November 5 will be the economy, which is cited more often in the survey (20%) as the main subject of concern for black voters. 36% of black voters believe that the country’s economic situation is bad, compared to 23% who consider it good. Looking at men under 30, the percentage who think the economy is in bad shape rises to 64%.
Trump gains ground among Latinos
The trend which seems to be strengthening among black voters is already confirmed among Latino voters during these elections. In the 2020 election, Latino support for Trump increased compared to 2016, according to a CNN survey. The projection, which makes the last investigation into the New York Timesestimates 56% support for Harris and 37% for Trump. Even though Harris still holds the majority, the percentage is lower than the historic 60% voting intentions maintained by her Democratic predecessors.
Looking again by gender, the gap repeats itself: 45% of Latinos who say they will vote Republican are men, while 62% of those who say they will vote Democratic are women.
Latino support strengthens Trump in some key Sun Belt states, such as Arizona. In a survey released at the end of September, Trump was already able to widen the gap between her and the Democrat, thanks in part to the fact that 10% of Latino voters who supported Harris said they were no longer so clear on their position. vote. Arizona is the fifth state with the most Latino voters in these elections (25%) and in 2020 this group was decisive in allowing Democrats to win this state for the first time since 1996, according to a study by the ‘UCLA. To date, according to aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Trump has managed to edge out Harris in Arizona, but by a slim margin of 1.5%.
Trump’s racist and anti-immigration rhetoric also does not appear to have negative effects on a large portion of Latino voters. According to the New York Times poll, 67% of Hispanics born in the United States do not have the impression that the Republican is talking about them when he talks about immigration. 51% of foreign-born Hispanics are also aware when Trump attacks immigrants in his speeches. In fact, Trump’s immigration policies enjoy broad support among Hispanics: more than a third of voters in this group favor building a wall with Mexico and deporting illegal immigrants. .
