In Senegal, the government presents its great development plan

It is a great classic from which the new authorities have not deviated: with each change of regime in Senegal, an economic plan ” ambitious “ is presented. One month before the early legislative elections on November 17 and six months after his presidential election, the Head of State, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, and his Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, unveiled on Monday, October 14, a program for “make Senegal a sovereign, prosperous and just country”baptized “Senegal 2050”.

Twelve years earlier, former president Macky Sall launched his plan “Emerging Senegal”, himself, in line with former president Abdoulaye Wade, and his “accelerated growth strategy” launched after his election in 2000.

Like his predecessors, the new executive has multiplied the numerical objectives for the next twenty-five years: tripling the GDP per capita until it is set at 4,500 dollars (approximately 4,130 euros) or even reducing the poverty rate to 10% of the population. , while almost four in ten Senegalese survive on less than 1,012 CFA francs (around 1.5 euros) a day, according to the National Agency for Statistics and Demography (ANSD).

Faced with this horizon as distant as it is uncertain, the new executive first set a course for 2029: growth “expected 6.5%” reduce the abysmal budget deficit from 10.4% to 3% of GDP, while promising to tax people who have not paid taxes until now.

Decentralization of the economy

Champion of the fight against corruption, the duo in power began by making a damning observation about the management of the previous authorities. Three weeks after presenting a violent accusation against the regime of former president Macky Sall, accusing him of “widespread corruption” and having masked the extent of the deterioration of public accounts, said Sonko “ Bad government since independence.

“Our model does not create value. But we can take a new trajectory.” He? he explained to the audience of national officials and foreign diplomats present at the Diamniadio convention center, on the outskirts of Dakar.

The new executive presented the main axes of his strategy to break the “vicious circle of [sa] dependency and [son] underdevelopment »according to Sonko. The country’s economy is “prisoner of a model of exploitation of raw materials without recovery or local transformation”, Bassirou Diomaye Faye added.

To break with this model, the new authorities propose the decentralization of the economy. “Casamance, to the south, must be the agricultural granary. The Matam region in the north must be a fertilizer producer because phosphates are abundant there, but they are largely underexploited. explains economist Ousmane Birame Sane, former director of the Regional Stock Exchange.

“Real economic indices are in the red”

According to the Government’s forecasts, this development plan must be financed with 27 billion euros until 2029. It is not enough to clear up doubts and unknowns, nor to reassure investors concerned about the bad signs of the Senegalese economy. After the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised downwards all its indicators for Senegal in September, the coming to power of the new authorities coincided with greater fiscal and customs pressures.

“These leaders are disconnected from economic operators. They didn’t consult us. There is nothing new in your plan.”denounces Youssef Omaïs, director of Patisen, one of the few flagships of the agri-food industry in Senegal. “Where is the appeal of the Senegal brand in your plan? asks another executive of an industrial group who preferred anonymity for fear of tax reprisals. There is urgency because the real economic indices are in the red.”such as Senegal’s financial rating, lowered in early October by the Moody’s agency from Ba3 to B1.

The new authorities also ignored, on Monday, the weight of hydrocarbons in the national economy. What will be its place when Senegal has become an oil producer and must export 100,000 barrels per day? One month before the legislative elections, the redistribution of hydrocarbon revenues remains a source of controversy both for voters concerned about a reduction in their electricity bill and for foreign oil companies, concerned about a rapid return on investments and embarked in an insecure renegotiation of their contracts with the new power.

“The problem is that we focus on good political governance without taking stock of economic governance, analyzes Ahmadou Aly Mbaye, professor of economics and public policy at Cheikh-Anta-Diop University (UCAD) in Dakar. The promised structural transformation towards a manufacturing economy is not obvious because our leaders will face a paradox: labor in Senegal is abundant but its real cost is one of the highest in the world. All previous governments have come up against this reality: Senegal’s economy is a monetary economy. The arrival of oil risks worsening wage control. Like all previous oil-producing countries, Senegal is threatened by a well-known evil: the one that drives the oil sector to kill everyone else. »

Faced with rising expectations about oil and purchasing power, Ousmane Sonko urged the Senegalese to ” patience “, He already seems to anticipate criticism one month before the legislative elections.