In a democracy, majoritarian changes – even radical ones – do not always lead to spectacular results immediately. After eight years of populist government (2015-2023), which deeply damaged Poland’s institutional structures, the democratic coalition in power since December 2023 is evolving in a hostile environment and must face increasing public expectations.
The anniversary is no less significant: for Polish democrats, the political shock represented by the elections of October 15, 2023 will continue to be synonymous with popular miracle. The expression is not excessive. Let us remember that during an unprecedented electoral mobilization (74% participation, 85% in some cities), the liberals of the Civic Coalition (KO), the conservative Third Way alliance and the United Left returned the populists of the PiS to the opposition ( the Law and Justice Party) and its allies.
This result was a big surprise since the fight was disproportionate. After two terms of apparent questioning of the foundations of liberal democracy, Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s party had immense advantages: unlimited funds, all the gears of a politicized state under orders, a myriad of media outlets – particularly public ones – with methods of propaganda of unlimited aggressiveness.
For Democrats, it was the last chance. A third term for PiS would have been synonymous with a drift towards the Hungarian and Turkish models, that is, the lasting and almost immovable entrenchment of illiberal authoritarianism. The European Union should have tolerated it. October 15, 2023 will thus mark a milestone in the country’s history as the most important political event since the fall of communism.
Presidential veto power
One year later, where are we? The coalition dominated by Prime Minister Donald Tusk is struggling to recover and finds itself in an unfavorable situation on all sides. The chaos left by his predecessors left the country’s main institutions (the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court) dysfunctional or atrophied. PiS president Andrzej Duda, who staunchly defends his party’s achievements, constitutes with his right of veto the main obstacle to any systemic reform.
The country faces a legal dualism that is unprecedented in Western democracies. A quarter of Polish judges, or almost 3,000 magistrates, were appointed in violation of the Constitution, and the country is divided between the spokesmen of the old regime, who defend an unconstitutional legal order, and the government, which attempts, with limited legal instruments, to repair it. “I will defend the judges I appointed to the end. I will not return half or even half of one”criticized Duda before the Supreme Court on October 10.
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