Faced with an economic panorama marked by increasing geopolitical risks, the change in cycle with interest rates, the increasing uncertainty due to the elections in the United States – and how the final result will ultimately affect assets – and the fear of failure a landing as smooth as expected of the world economy, even There are companies that set themselves up as banner of the bullfight for the strength that reflect their balance sheets. And also because of the forecasts that analysts project about them.
Signatures like ACS, IAG, Meliá, Sabadell either Aènethey have seen how since January the consensus of analysts who cover their evolution has improved their estimates of net and gross profits. They all slipped in among the Ibex 35 companies in which projections have increased the most. Something that led (as a reward) to an increase in the valuation of its shares.
That is to say, now in the heat of better expectations than at the start of the year, analysts have increased the price target – and therefore the potential – that they give to these companies for next twelve months.
The most striking cases are those of ACS and Aena, in which experts have significantly improved the net and gross profit estimates for the year 2025. Since January, the forecasts for next year have seen growth at double figures in both cases, both in terms of net profits and in terms of EBITDA. Particularly striking is the nearly 50% improvement in the construction company’s gross profit estimates.
“Although we consider that the listing offers limited short-term potential, we continue to believe that there is long-term growth potential thanks to its excellent positioning, both geographical and operational,” explains Renta 4.
And all this had the impact of improving its valuation by almost 25%. In fact, they sneak into the 10 signatures of the Ibex 35 at which analysts have improved their price target the most for the next twelve months.
In this sense, Banco Sabadell is the most profitable. Analysts have increased their valuation by almost 40% following the course marked by its stock price, which has appreciated by almost 70% since the start of the year, in the heat of the BBVA takeover bid. , which could extend “several months, until”. until the first quarter of 2025″, according to the latest statements from the Minister of Economy, Carlos Body.
“These operations [la opa] “The domestic banks presented limited execution risks and significant advantages for the bondholders of the acquired entities,” explains Jakub Lichwa, manager of TwentyFour AM (Vontobel Boutique). “The process naturally leads to stronger players acquiring their counterparts with tighter margins. This helps reduce the risk linked to the presence of these banks which could have difficulty meeting their cost of capital and, on the contrary , They now benefit from cheaper financing thanks to being part of a larger entity.” explains the expert.
The market consensus is aware of its situation and has raised the company’s forecast by almost 30% for 2024 and almost 40% for 2025. In fact, it is the company whose estimates improve the most ibex since January.
Tourism-related businesses
Businesses related to tourism, as they are in one way or another IAG, Melia, either Aènehave benefited in the short term from the fall in the price of crude oil in recent sessions and this has been reflected in their share prices. However, beyond the immediacy, the market consensus has improved its earnings estimates and, as a result, increased its valuation by over 20% across the board.
Operators indeed point out that “the increase in sales and the appearance of new key destinations are two factors which have marked the last few months and which allow us to predict a positive end of the year for the sector”.
Bankinter’s analysis department emphasizes that it has raised its traffic forecasts for 2024: “Passenger traffic is developing better than expected. It accumulates an increase of 11% in the first half and therefore, Aène revises upwards its forecasts for 2024″, they indicate.
“Regarding the summer season, the outlook is positive, which implies growth for the third consecutive year,” emphasizes Renta 4. Melia. “In America, good development is expected in the Dominican Republic, favored by the increase in traffic from the main emitting countries,” they detail.
“We reiterate the purchase recommendation IAG. In our opinion, this will be driven by the recovery of the airline sector, attractive valuation levels and an improvement in its balance sheet and this will be the trend in the coming years”, they say from Bankinter, from where they warn that ” This is a recommended value only for dynamic profiles.”
