NEWSru.co.il continues to publish reviews on the political situation in Israel written by journalist Gabi Wolfson.
Elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwara will change the course of the war, which is now in its second year. However, this liquidation, this very serious achievement in the Gaza Strip, may also have internal political consequences. Benjamin Netanyahu faces a dilemma: how to best use the public opinion points he has received.
The dramatic turn in the war comes amid growing pressure from the ultra-Orthodox, who will also have to take into account Netanyahu’s strengthening position.
And don’t forget about the upcoming US elections. Netanyahu hopes for a possible return donald trump to the White House. The results of the US elections will determine many things.
Elimination of Sinvar: consequences and opportunities.
October 7, 2023 marked the collapse of the “Mr. Security” image that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had built over the years. A man who built his entire political career on books about the fight against terrorism, about the struggle of civilizations and the like, a man who spent his entire political life talking about security and countering the Iranian threat, turned out to be the one whose mandate the most terrible catastrophe in the history of the State in the field of security occurred.
Over the next year, Netanyahu sought public rehabilitation and realized that the path to it lay exclusively through rehabilitation in the field of security. He had no intention of abandoning politics, leaving behind the failure of October 7 as a final touch.
The last month brings Netanyahu as close as possible to this goal. Settlement Hassan Nasrallahas well as the entire high command of Hezbollah, and now the liquidation Yahya Sinwaragive Netanyahu a chance to turn the page. There are several possibilities before him and today no one will dare to predict what path one of the most unpredictable people in world politics will take.
You can take the risk and, using the crisis around the bill as an excuse, go to the polls. This step has three big advantages: firstly, Netanyahu will deprive his competitors in this way, firstly, Naftali Bennettopportunities to organize and prepare, secondly, the elections in such a situation will be announced at the most favorable moment for the prime minister and, thirdly, the announcement of the elections can delay the inevitable decision, from Netanyahu’s point of view , to create a state. investigation commission. At the same time, announcing early elections is too serious a risk, because the “coalition of 68” can continue to function until the fall of 2026.
The second option is to continue restoring his authority in the leadership of the Israelis. The return of the hostages, at least some of them, the stabilization of the situation in Lebanon and Gaza and, of course, the confrontation with Iran could be steps that complement the picture of the “renaissance” war, as proposed by the Prime Minister. Minister. call him This could also see a resurgence of the prime minister’s public authority. After this, Netanyahu will decide whether to go to the polls or abandon politics.
Those who know the prime minister say the chances of calling an early election are slim. “The war is not over,” Netanyahu said in a statement after Sinwar was eliminated. The war to restore the prime minister’s public legitimacy continues.
Coalition: Netanyahu regains control
The removal of Sinwar greatly strengthens the prime minister’s position in relations with his coalition colleagues. Before the start of the Sukkot holiday, the chapter “Yaadut ha-Torah” Itzhak Goldknopf He reiterated that the conscription law must be passed before the government votes on the 2025 budget.
“If this does not happen, we will stop participating in the coalition,” Goldknopf said.
This threat initially seemed dubious from the point of view of the prospects for its implementation. The ultra-Orthodox have few alternatives, and the collapse of the coalition in the middle of the war, even among Ya’adut HaTorah voters, would cause much surprise. After the liquidation of Sinvar, the Haredim will definitely not rush. The collapse of the government when the war goes badly can still be explained somewhat. No one will understand this if the coalition is falling apart when the entire architecture of the Middle East is changing before our eyes. The liquidation of Sinvar may have consequences, in comparison with which even such an important issue as the law on conscription will remain secondary.
At the same time, we may be nearing the end of the drama surrounding the bill. Let us not forget that three readings are not necessary for its approval, since the bill, approved by the last Knesset in the first reading, received the status of continuity, and remains to be approved in the commission, and then in the second and third reading in plenary session. As far as I know, there are no changes in the positions of the parties discussing the bill in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. If Netanyahu intends to meet the demands of the ultra-Orthodox and pass the conscription law before the government votes on the budget, he has very little time left. The government meeting at which the budget is expected to be approved is scheduled for October 31. It takes an extremely tight schedule and a lot of good will to reach an agreement in two weeks on one of the most difficult issues in our public life. The coalition understands this very well and has one of two possible scenarios. According to one of them, at the last moment, Ya’adut HaTorah will compromise, since accepting a law that is imperfect from the haredi point of view is better than not accepting it at all.
An additional persuasive factor for Ya’adut HaTorah could be the High Court’s consideration of an appeal on the issue of daycare subsidy. Minister of Social Welfare Yoav Ben-Tzur attempts to limit the provision of subsidies to all who are eligible until such subsidies cannot be received by the families of yeshiva students who evade service. “Everyone should receive,” says Yoav Ben-Tzur. Government Legal Advisor Gali Baarav-Miara ruled that such a position was illegal.
“Families of yeshiva students who evade military service are deprived of subsidies in accordance with the High Court decision, and a solution to this issue cannot be imposed by depriving everyone else of subsidies.” – said Baarav-Miara.
In this context, Shas and Ya’adut HaTorah may become more accommodating when discussing the law on conscription. If this does not happen, the government’s vote on the budget can always be postponed. October 31 is far from being a holy date.
Netanyahu’s position has been strengthened not only in negotiations with the ultra-Orthodox. Last week, the chapter of “Otzma Yehudit” Itamar Ben Gvir He stated that for two months he has been part of a “close decision-making forum for the management of the war.” Those around Netanyahu did not argue directly, they only reported, through an anonymous but very well-informed source, that in reality there is no such forum and that Ben-Gvir certainly participates in decision-making when relevant. The head of Otzma Yehudit did not argue either.
Despite a certain calm on the right flank of the coalition, events are expected in the near future that will once again put it to the test of survival. If the liquidation of Sinvar implies certain concessions to end the war as soon as possible and return the abductees, the conflict between Netanyahu, on the one hand, and Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, on the other, may resume.
Right-wing parties and the activists who support them are growing in appetite amid gains in Gaza. Increasingly calls are made and initiatives are formed for the restoration of the Jewish settlement in Gaza. Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that reviving Gush Katif is not part of his plans or those of his government. This doesn’t really bother right-wing parties or even Likud deputies, who intend to hold an event called “Preparation for Return” during the Sukkot holiday. At least 16 deputies, including nine from Likud, intend to participate. To date, Netanyahu has made no attempt to stop this event, despite expected criticism from the United States. On the one hand, everyone understands that at the moment there is no talk of restoring Gush Katif. On the other hand, demands for legalization of presence in Homesh were also initially the fate of a small number of activists.
Opposition: patience and working on mistakes
The opposition understands the low chances of elections being announced in the near future. Furthermore, most opposition parties are unwilling to force events, realizing that Netanyahu is back “on horseback” and that the chances of winning 61 mandates without RAAM are low. And the opposition is taking advantage of the moment to prepare as best as possible for the elections. This week, information was published that Naftali Bennett continues to form a party, and does so in the same way that he hires employees for a high-tech company, and not partners to promote political ideas. Selection, tests, interviews. Bennett appears to be learning lessons from the collapse of Yamina, which began when its leader decided to go back on his word to voters and form a government with Lapid, Meretz and Ra’am. The collapse of the ruling party (with six mandates) caused the government to collapse very quickly. Bennett hopes that this time the situation will be different and that the main thing in the long list of advantages of the candidates to participate in the virtual party is loyalty to the leader. By the way, Bennett’s party will not be an exception in this regard: a similar principle applies in several other opposition and coalition parties. Bennett simply brings everything up to high-tech standards. You may later be disappointed by this approach. (newsru.co.il)
