Sources of Israeli intelligence They told news portal Axios this week that They expected an attack from Iran “before the US elections”, which will be held this Tuesday, November 5. The Israeli army detected suspicious movements of ballistic missiles and launch platforms drones towards Iraq, where the so-called Islamic Resistance operates, a terrorist group linked to the Tehran regime which regularly launches projectiles at Israel, without much success.
The possibility of this attack, as well as Israel’s predictable response, reopens debate on extent to which Middle East conflict may escalate and what consequences this could have for the region and the rest of the world.
The Israeli Prime Minister himself, Benjamin Netanyahurecently declared that his administration’s number one goal was to “prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons“, but it is not at all clear how this will be achieved: the systematic elimination of scientists goes that far… and it is difficult to find a bomb capable of completely destroying the underground laboratories where the IAEThe International Atomic Energy Agency knows that Iran is enriching uranium.
Even in the case where a a preemptive attack will damage, than not to destroy these installations, Iran could always rebuild these labs further and preventing access to IAEA experts, who in principle oversee Iran’s nuclear program. We say “in principle” because the difficulties are increasing, especially since in 2018, Donald Trump to withdraw the United States from the nuclear development agreement it signed with Tehran, Russia and China, among others.
Iran’s intention could be precisely to increase tensions in the region to convince its public opinion and part of the international community of need to obtain a nuclear weapon to defend against Israel. This is why the United States is so insistent to the Netanyahu government on the need to exercise some restraint in responding to each attack. It remains to be seen whether, after a third attack, Tel Aviv will be so willing to curb its impulses.
The nuclear debate, in the streets… and in Parliament
The key lies in the intentions of the Ayatollahs’ government, which are confusing to say the least. own Ali KhameneI was shown thisunlike not only the use but the very manufacture of nuclear weapons considering them to be contrary to the fundamental principles of Islam.
Now, since at least the 90s They enrich uranium, in principle for civilian use. It is concerning that the United States and the IAEA no longer have much access to laboratories to verify that this is still the goal of the process. Only China and Russia remain faithful to the treaty and are now military allies of Iran, making it both judge and party.
According to the Pentagon, Iran would only need days, if not weeks, to enrich enough uranium how to give him a military use. In other words, they can do it whenever they want. Another solution would be to convert this enriched uranium into a useful weapon, which could take longer. There are those who measure it in months, there are those who measure it over the whole year.
An Iranian woman walks past an anti-Israeli poster on a street in Tehran.
Reuters
Furthermore, this would have to be done without arousing the suspicions of the IAEA or of Israel and the United States, which is very complicated. The degree of infiltration of Mossad espionage in Iran was verified on August 1 with the assassination of the leader of Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, in his hotel room in Tehran the day before President Pezeshkian’s inauguration.
This does not mean that the regime is not considering this possibility. After decades during which The possession of nuclear weapons was considered a taboo that could not be talked about, In recent weeks, amid a wave of attacks in both directions, the debate has taken to the streets, social networks and Parliament. Last month, 39 MPs called on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to lift the ban on nuclear weapons. They are a huge minority, but a significant minority, which indicates that times are changing.
The conventional weakness of Iranian defense
And that’s it Iran has a serious defense problem, no matter how much its rhetoric goes in the opposite direction: the Islamic regime has relied in recent decades on three elements to assert its military capacity. The first was the call Axis of resistancewhich was used to harass Israel and American soldiers deployed in the region. The presence of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Islamic Resistance or the Houthis meant that Iran’s enemies had other reasons to worry and could not contemplate a direct attack on Tehran.
This threat has faded in recent months with the selective assassination of the vast majority of senior Hamas and Hezbollah officials. The Palestinian organization is reduced to its minimum expression and the Lebanese organization, still capable of repelling Israeli attacks and launching its own, has just elected a new leader – the veteran Naim Qassem – and is in an understandable process of regrouping. and reassignment of functions.
The second layer of this defensive construction was its own conventional arsenal of drones, missiles and anti-aircraft defenses. This arsenal twice proved incapable of causing significant damage in Israel and was exhausted by conventional Hebrew attacks. Even though Tehran tried to downplay last Saturday’s offensive, the newspaper Atlantic He considers it “the largest attack on Iranian soil since the war against Iraq”. It was 35 years ago.
An Iranian missile system is displayed next to a banner with an image of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the late Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on a street in Tehran.
Reuters
The enormous risk of nuclear deterrence
Finally, it remains the threat of the nuclear program. This would be the ultimate deterrent, but it is impossible to measure the consequences. Throwing yourself into the arms of the atomic bomb, especially in the middle of an open conflict with another country that also possesses nuclear weapons, represents an enormous risk. Even if this were carried out, it would cause a race in the rest of the Middle Eastern countries, looking for their own weapon of mass destruction that would guarantee their own security.
Perhaps this is why It is in Iran’s interest to return to some type of agreement with the United States guarantee its security and its civil nuclear program and not play with fire. An agreement similar to the one signed in 2015 with Barack Obama and which brings the positions between the two countries closer, so that Israel does not feel like it has the support of the White House when it comes to embarking on some sort of dangerous adventure. American experts cited by the portal The Atlantic assure that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump would be ready to have some form of collaboration with the Tehran regime.
The question is whether Iran can trust the United States at this point, and especially Trump himself. It was the former president who unilaterally withdrew his country from the nuclear deal and it was the former president who ordered the assassination of General Soulemani, head of the Quds Force, at Baghdad airport. It is difficult to sign an agreement whose guarantees are offered by someone who has already failed you and imposed sanctions that have destabilized your economy.
Also It remains to be seen what role China and Russia will choose to play in this role.. Ties between the three countries, particularly between Moscow and Tehran, are closer than ever. Putin could agree to protect Iran with his own nuclear weapons without demanding that the ayatollahs build their own. This would give Russia greater influence in the region and avoid a possible enemy in the future.
Alliances change very quickly. Not so long ago, the United States and Russia fought together against ISIS, against the nuclear whims of Iran, and against those of North Korea. Today, it is Iran, North Korea and Russia who are fighting against the United States and its allies.
