Former US President Donald Trump once again reduced the advantage of the Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris. He has reduced the distance by eight tenths since Thursday in total: four tenths this Sunday, one this Saturday, one Friday and two Thursday. The Democratic candidate for the White House still maintains a minimum margin of 0.9 points over the Republican candidate, according to the general average of surveys published this Friday in the United States. This continues Trump’s trend of chipping away at the vice president’s advantage for days. According to these polls, which reflect the general sentiment of voters in the United States, 15 days before the November 5 electionsHarris would obtain 49.2% of the electorate’s favor. Trump would win 48.3% of the vote, according to the general average of polls in the United States. Due to the electoral college system and taking this Sunday’s polls as a guide, Trump would win the election with 312 electoral votes. Harris would stay with 226.
This distance from Harris, as Democratic strategists have known for days, It is not enough for him to win the electionsdue to the distribution of electoral votes in each state of the Electoral college system. 15 days before the 2024 US presidential elections, Trump would surpass Harris in all the undecided states, which hold the key to victory in these elections: Pennsylvania (0.8 points), Wisconsin (0.2 points) and Michigan (1,2), once again completely breaking the famous Blue Wall (blue wall), which make up these three traditional Democratic states.
Trump already seized these three bastions from Harris’ party in 2016, when he won the election against Hillary Clinton. Furthermore, it would gain Arizona (1.6 points), where it increases by 0.4 points on average in polls compared to Friday, North Carolina (0.5), Georgia (1.8), up 0.8 points compared to Friday’s polls, and Snowfall (0.8), where it increases by 0.3 points. The electoral college system would benefit Trump again in 2024, as happened in 2016. Taking polls as a guide, Trump would have won the presidential election by the electoral college with 312 electoral votes. Harris would have lost with 226 electoral votes.
As you can see in the graph aboveDemocrats’ fear is in the previously mentioned US battleground states (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan).
He Former US President Donald Trump on Sunday surpassed Vice President Harris for the first time in election predictions this election cycle. Decision Office Headquarters/The Hill, specialized publication in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The model predicts that Trump has a 52% chance of winning the presidency, while Harris holds 42%, according to data published this Sunday.
In late August, election forecasts put Harris’ chances of victory at 54 to 56 percent and Trump’s chances at 44 to 46 percent. But in early October, that dynamic began to change.and the electoral forecasts then predicted that the chances of the two candidates were closer to 50%.
The change in Sunday’s election forecast coincides with the Republican candidate’s improving polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan.two swing states that previously leaned slightly in favor of Harris. Trump already had a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
States Harris Got
Colorado (10 electoral votes).
Illinois (19).
Washington (12).
California (54).
New Jersey (14).
new York (28).
Oregon (8).
Maine District 1 (1).
Maine (2).
Minnesota (10), even if some polls consider him undecided.
New Mexico (5).
Virginia (13).
Connecticut (7).
Delaware (3)
D.C.capital of Washington (3).
Hawaii (4).
Maryland (10).
Massachusetts (11).
Rhode Island (4).
Vermont (3).
States that Trump secured
Florida (30 electoral votes).
Ohio (17).
Texas (40).
Maine District 2 (1).
Alaska (3).
Iowa (6).
Kansas (6).
Missouri (10).
Mountain (4).
South Carolina (9).
Alabama (9).
Arkansas(6).
Idaho (4).
Indiana (11).
Kentucky (8).
Louisiana (8).
Mississippi (6).
Nebraska (4).
North Dakota (3).
Oklahoma (7).
South Dakota (3).
Tennessee (11).
Utah (6).
WV (4).
Wyoming (3).
undecided states
Arizona (11). Trump is leading in the polls.
Georgia (16). Trump leads Harris in polls.
Michigan (15). Trump has broken the Democratic blue wall: he is ahead of Harris in studies on voting intentions.
Snowfall (6). Trump has an advantage over Harris in the polls.
North Carolina (16). Trump surpasses Harris.
Pennsylvania (19). The state of Pennsylvania is the most populated of the undecided. He has 19 votes in the Electoral College. It is the most important state in this presidential race. Trump leads Harris, according to latest polls.
Wisconsin (10). Trump leads Harris in the state, according to the latest polls.
Some pollsters add to the previously mentioned seven New Hampshire (4) and Nebraska District 2 (1) to the list of undecided.
