Corruption scandals, such as Koldo affair which affects several ministries and public companies, They barely reduced the electoral expectations of the PSOE. If the elections took place today, the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo would obtain a clear victory with 156 deputies and 35.2% of the votes, even if it is 20 seats short of reaching an absolute majority.
Feijóo would thus extend its advantage over the PSOE to 6.9 points, according to the latest survey prepared by SocioMétrica for EL ESPAÑOL.
However, Pedro Sánchez shows a solid electoral base: he would win 120 seats, one less than what he obtained in the 23-J general elections, which allowed him to continue governing thanks to his alliance with the party . independence parties.
In the coming weeks, President Pedro Sánchez will intensify negotiations for his inauguration partners to support the 2025 general state budget, in order to complete the remaining three years of the legislature and avoid calling early elections.
Vox also retains significant staying power. After breaking its government agreements with the PP in six autonomous communities, the party of Santiago Abascal It would obtain 29 seats today (four fewer than in the 23-J elections) and 11.2% of the vote.
Meanwhile, on the same political spectrum, Alvise Pérez’s results are deflating. His group of voters would obtain 3.4% today and one seat in Congress, two fewer than those allocated in the previous SocioMétrica survey published on September 2.
Since then, it has emerged that shortly before running in the 9-J European elections with three MEPs, Alvise had received an irregular donation of 100,000 euros from a cryptocurrency businessman, who today now the subject of an investigation for fraud before the National Court.
As for Pedro Sánchez’s partners, the Sumar coalition still fails to capitalize on its participation in the government. Today I will record the 6.6% of the votes and 10 seatsfar from the 31 he obtained in the 23-J elections. With the direction of Yolanda Diaz Questioned, the Minister of Culture, Ernest Urtasun, is today the emerging figure of the coalition.
There is no good news from Podemos either. The SocioMétrica poll gives him 3.4% of the votes (like Alvise) and three seats. Ione Belarra’s party has decided to increase the pressure and use the four deputies it has in Congress.
At the Podemos fall school this weekend, Belarra warned that his party would withdraw its support for the government if Sánchez did not break diplomatic relations with Israel and accept regulate rental prices by law.
Pablo Iglesias went a little further in the same forum: “Of course, I want to accumulate power”, he warned, “the four deputies of Podemos can Bend Sánchez’s arm like Junts with amnesty.
The weakness of the government has strengthened its nationalist and independence partners. After losing the Generalitat, ERC would repeat today with 7 seats (1.6%) and Junts would obtain eight (1.9%), one more than the 23-J. The organizing secretary of the PSOE, Santos Cerdán, continues to travel monthly to Switzerland to try to control Carles Puigdemont and get your party to support the budgets.
Bildu (1.4%) would also retain the six seats obtained a year ago and the PNV would gain one, to reach six deputies. Among the rest of the formations, the BNG would obtain two (0.8%). Such Union of the Navarrese People (UPN) as Canarian Coalition (which now governs the archipelago with the PP) would have a single representative in Congress.
In this scenario, the breakup of the far left would prevent Sánchez from continuing to govern in the event of an election. Podemos’ reconciliation with Sumar only seems possible if Vice President Yolanda Díaz is removed from the front line.
As for Alberto Núñez Feijóo, to be sworn in as president, he would need the abstention or support of the 29 deputies of Vox. This bloc would add a comfortable absolute majority of 185 seats. Or 187, if the UPN and the Canarian Coalition are included.
Compared to the previous SocioMétrica survey, published by EL ESPAÑOL on September 2, the Feijóo PP improves its results by six seats (up 1.2 points in voting intentions), as many as the PSOE loses.
Since then, the judicial investigation into the Koldo affair announced that the former minister and former number two of the PSOE José Luis Ábalos received compensation (such as the rent of an apartment for his girlfriend Jéssica, whom he placed in two public companies) from the corrupt plot that He made profits by selling masks to different ministries during the pandemic.
Over the past week, Sánchez has suffered several legal setbacks. The Provincial Court of Madrid approved the investigation into Begoña Gomez (but limiting its scope) and the Superior Court of Justice of Madrid (TSJM) rejected the complaint filed by Sánchez against judge Juan Carlos Peinado.
Despite all this, the majority of people interviewed today prefers Pedro Sánchez as president (against Feijóo) and he thinks this will still be the case after the next elections.
According to the survey, 22% want Pedro Sánchez to be president of the government again after the next elections, while 21.1% bet on Alberto Núñez Feijóo. It is followed in the preferences of those questioned by Yolanda Díaz (11.5%), Santiago Abascal (9.8%) and Alvise Pérez (3%).
If the election is reduced to the leaders of the two main parties, the margin widens slightly: 35.9% bet on Sánchez and 33.8% on Feijóo.
Given its ability to overcome any adverse situation, 39.1% think Sánchez will be president again after the next elections (a percentage slightly higher than the 38.7% recorded in September), compared to the 32% who believe Feijóo will be.
The result is different when respondents are asked how they appreciate (on a scale of 0 to 10) the work of different political leaders. Although they all fail, Feijóo and Yolanda Díaz are in the lead, tied with a 3.7. They are followed by Pedro Sánchez (3.5), Alvise Pérez (2.9) and, in last position, Santiago Abascal (2.5).
There is important information. Among these five national parties, the president Pedro Sánchez is least appreciated by his own voters: They give it a 6.6. It is not for nothing that his policy of alliances and his concessions to the independentists have been questioned by important figures in his party, from Felipe González to Emiliano García-Page or J.Avier Lambán.
The current secretary general of the PSOE of Aragon did so in an interview published this Sunday in EL ESPAÑOL. At the opposite extreme, Se Acaó la Fiesta voters are the most enthusiastic: they give Alvise a score of 8.7.
And a final paradox. Even as Sumar’s election expectations have plummeted, V.P. Yolanda Díaz continues to be the most popular political leader: Receives the support of 28.8% of respondents.
He is closely followed by the president of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo (28.5%), Pedro Sánchez (28.3%) and, further away, Santiago Abascal (19.5%) and Alvise Pérez (11%). .
Technical sheet
The study was carried out by the company SocioMétrica between October 16 and 18, 2024 through 2,240 random interviews extracted from its own panel of n=10,000 individuals representative of all Spanish socio-demographic segments.
The final results were finely adjusted using a weighting variable that takes into account gender, age, province and electoral memory during the last three elections.
Maximum error: 3% (SocioMétrica’s average deviation in voting in gen23 was 1.1% and in eu24 was 0.8%). No confidence level is applicable as this is non-probability sampling.
Study director: Gonzalo Adán. Doctor in political psychology and professor of psychometrics and social research techniques. SocioMétrica is a member of Insights + Analytics Spain.
