Less than two weeks after the signing of a military cooperation agreement in Cairo between the presidents of Egypt and Somalia, two Lockheed C-130 aircraft of the Egyptian Air Force landed on the runway of Mogadishu airport on August 27 to deliver weapons and disembark training officers. The arrival of Egypt in force in Somalia, which has been at odds with Ethiopia since the beginning of the year, represents a further step in the ongoing military escalation in the Horn of Africa.
In recent months, Somali President Hassan Cheikh Mohamoud has increased defense associations to protect himself from possible actions by his Ethiopian neighbor, whom he accuses “assault” and of “flagrant violation of its sovereignty”At the root of these regional tensions: the maritime agreement signed in January between Addis Ababa and the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland – which unilaterally declared its independence in 1991 – to allow the Ethiopian navy access to the sea.
This text, which seeks to lease a 20-kilometer strip of territory to Ethiopia for 50 years, must in the end lead to official recognition of the Republic of Somaliland by the Ethiopian government. A red line for Mogadishu, which is therefore trying to derail the treaty.
While Turkey, a former partner of Somalia, intends to deploy its warships to protect Somali territorial waters and coasts, including those of Somaliland, it is now another heavyweight in the region, Egypt, that is investing in the Gulf of Aden. President Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi promised to guarantee Somalia’s territorial sovereignty when he signed a military agreement on August 14, denouncing attempts at foreign interference in the internal affairs of Mogadishu.
A diplomatic confrontation
In this regard, Cairo has expressed its desire to train the Somali army and deploy some 5,000 soldiers within the framework of the new African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission, Aussom, which will begin on 1Ahem January 2025. “Egypt is determined to deploy its troops with or without AU authorization, a diplomat from the continental organization confides. They want to establish a presence in Somalia, not fight Al-Shabaab [groupe djihadiste affilié à Al-Qaida]but to counteract Ethiopian influence. »
For a decade, Egypt and Ethiopia have been at odds over the Renaissance Dam on the Nile, Africa’s largest water project, whose construction in Addis Ababa was completed this year. A diplomatic standoff involves the management and sharing of the waters of the Nile, on which Egypt depends for 97% of its water needs.
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