The US investment bank, Goldman Sachs, on Monday changed its expectations for the US monetary policy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve System will provide 3 reductions by a quarter of the percentage point; Each of them in 2025 amid the market for weak labor and the influence of customs duties on inflation.
According to Reuters, the financial institution expects that the course of monetary assistance will begin in September next year, and then two additional disappearance in October and December, after which he previously expected only one reduction this year.
Bank analysts wrote in a research note: “Earlier, we believed that the peak of the influence of customs duties on monthly inflation in the summer, in addition to recent growth in some indicators of inflationary expectations among families, will make an early decrease in a disputed step.” They added: “But the initial data indicate that the effect of fees is less than our estimates, and the pressure at the bottom was stronger than expected.”
In a similar context, other banks, such as City Group and Wales Vargo, expect a decrease in 75 points in 2025, while the Global Research UPS assumed a deeper reduction of 100 basic points. These institutions agree that the beginning of the reduction will be in September.
The US presidential administration Donald Trump levied “mutual fees” on April 2 to a number of large commercial partners, but later froze some sharp increase in these fees.
Modern data showed an unexpected decrease in the expenses of American consumers in May last year, when preliminary offers for goods, such as cars, before joining customs duties, while monthly inflation remained moderate.
Goldman Sachs also expects that two additional interest reductions in 2026, which will fall on the final interest rate to the range from 3 to 3.25 percent compared to previous expectations from 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
It should be noted that the current record interest rate for the “federal reserve system” ranges from 4.25 to 4.50 percent.
It is expected that a report on work in the United States will be released in June on Thursday, since its data can provide additional signals about the slowdown in the labor market, which increases the tendency to reduce interest faster.
