The resounding defeat of Japan’s ruling conservative party and the rise of the main progressive force in Sunday’s snap elections open an uncertain political panorama in this Asian country, in which a complex coalition will be needed to govern.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and its partner the Buddhist Komeito saw their representation drop from 288 seats to 215, insufficient to remain in power, while the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) of Yoshihiko Noda is increased from 98 seats. seats at 148, in a Parliament whose majority is marked by 233 seats.
Why did the PLD call early elections?
Ishiba’s party decided to call early elections after changing leadership late last month and a year before the end of the current legislature. The current Prime Minister has made the bet of seeking support during the elections and legitimizing his new government; Although a common practice in Japanese politics, this practice has had devastating results for the LDP.
Ishiba won the conservative party primaries after the resignation of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, who left the leadership of the PLD and the Executive to take responsibility for an irregular financing scandal and promote a “renewal” of this formation .
What do these results mean?
The elections produced the worst results for the LDP since it lost power in 2009, when the defunct Democratic Party won elections in a legislature that ended with a brief term for the current opposition leader Noda (2011-2012).
The PLD’s electoral disaster leaves Ishiba on a tightrope, who has said his goal for these elections is to at least maintain the majority of the ruling coalition. Whoever is still prime minister will now look for possible additional partners to stay in power, a task that seems very complicated.
Whether or not he manages to form a group to govern, analysts point out that the prime minister could already be politically condemned by his own formation, where his figure was already discussed before Sunday, and they raise the possibility that he becomes the short-lived prime minister of post-war Japan (he took office on October 1).
The LDP has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, with the only exceptions being the legislatures from 1993 to 1996 and 2009 to 2012.
Who can govern?
Given the many possibilities that arise after these results, some experts point out that a minority government of the current PLD-Komeito coalition is currently the most likely option. The problem is that it could be overturned by opposition motions of censure.
Ishiba called on other forces to expand his traditional coalition, whose main candidates would be the center-right People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the conservative Innovation Party, the third parliamentary force. But the two parties exclude for the moment any alliance with the PLD.
A grand coalition between the two main parties, the PLD and the PDC, seems much less likely because of their ideological differences and because the rise of the latter has been based on its criticisms of the former.
Finally, the most distant option would be a “rainbow” alliance between all opposition formations, ranging from communist ideology to conservative populism or nationalism.
What will happen from now on?
The parties have 30 days after the election to negotiate and try to agree on a configuration that allows them to govern, and with further Upper House elections on the horizon next summer.
A new change in leadership within the PLD could make these complex tasks easier for a party going through its worst moment in decades while navigating a crisis due to inflation and economic stagnation at home and escalating tensions worldwide.
