The speed with which Russia seized the city of Krasnohorivkasouthwest of Avdiivka, still close to the capital Donetsk, confirms that Things are not going well for Ukraine on this front.We cannot speak of a collapse or anticipate a shipwreck, but it is true that for months we have been hearing on the front lines many complaints about the lack of replacements, ammunition and coordination necessary to face an army whose resources are far from infinite, but are, obviously, superior to the locals.
The Ukrainian Army it looks like it is exhausted and confused. It is not that the Russian is much better, so his advances are still relatively slow on the whole front, but he has the advantage of numbers and subjugation: Gerasimov does not fear to viciously bombard an enemy city or to send thousands of his men to certain death. In Krasnohorivka, Ukraine had the opportunity to resistwhich he has been accustomed to doing throughout this war (we are talking about a city of about 15,000 inhabitants at the beginning of 2022), but he preferred to spare himself this wear and tear, leaving the area in an orderly manner towards better positions.
The problem is that by taking the enclave, Russia now has many avenues of advance and the sense of facing increasingly demoralized resistance. From Gerasimov’s foresight in protecting his lines of communication and supply through the Ocheretyn salient against the ability of Ukrainian drones to punish all that open territory from Selidove and Kurajove, The future of Donbass will depend on it… and perhaps of Zaporizhzhia.
Beyond Pokrovsk
Because, right now, The question is whether Russia will limit itself to attacking Pokrovsk via Hrodivka. or if you aspire to more. It does not seem that Ukraine will be able to give up Pokrovsk as it did Krasnohorivka. It is a very important center of operations and communications, with 50,000 inhabitants before the war, several railway lines that connect the Ukrainian Donbass and up to five apparently good roads that connect the west, north and south. There will be a battle and the Russians will suddenly not seem to be in a hurry.
A Russian soldier performs maneuvers on a tank in an archive image.
Efe
Last month’s progress has also been stalled, largely because of The Russians are exhaustedThey have their own supply problems and the terrain does not help: many streams and marshy areas. Hence also the urgency of the previous days. As soon as autumn arrives, with its frosts and its first rains, it will fill with mud and every kilometer gained will cost the world dearly. Pokrovsk is ten kilometers away, but you have to go through them.
This is why Russia seems to have set its sights further south. While in the north it is trying to expand its zone of control with the capture of Toretsk, the idea at the other end is to make the widest possible salient towards the so-called Kurajove to protect itself from any counterattack. The importance of Kurajove is much more than symbolic. In a way, together with Vuhledar, they act as a hinge between the eastern and southern fronts, that is, between the troops advancing from Donetsk and those who have taken Mariupol and southern Zaporizhzhia.
Bombing of Kurajove intensified in recent days, taking advantage of the weaknesses of Ukrainian air defense systems, problems that its allies cannot mitigate, even though Zelensky has been calling for Patriot systems throughout Europe for months. Kurajove is likely to be one of the locations where the men currently at risk of being trapped west of Novelske will retreat and, together with Vuhledar, further south, would form up the main line of defense against possible attacks on the Zaporozhye region.
The threat to Velyka Novosilka
At present, the great danger for Ukraine is not only the possible loss of Pokrovsk. This would not be good news, far from it, but in recent months, the most pessimistic analyses have already considered it logical. losing almost the entire Donetsk province after resisting the supposed second largest army in the world for two and a half years. It would be a painful and unwanted loss.but, to some extent, understandable.
Another thing is how these positions are lost, whenever that day comes. If it is done in an orderly manner and protecting both Zaporozhye in the south, like Dnieper to the west, like Kharkiv In the north, Putin’s coup has reportedly been successfully stopped. That is why it is so important to hold out around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the north, and why it is so important to prevent a Russian incursion that would break the aforementioned Vuhledar-Kurajove line.
Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield at an unspecified location.
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense
If we do that, and we know that there are already Russian troops in the mining areas north of Vuhledar, that is, right in the space that Ukraine cannot afford to lose, Russia could launch an offensive that would break the Ukrainian defenses in two, leaving them trapped by the troops last summer. They tried to advance from Velyka Novosilka towards Tokmak.. Of course, this incursion would have to be supported from the south, otherwise it would represent an enormous risk.
Repair parts to avoid major problems
This would also require significant military superiority, and that remains to be seen, as information is diffuse. Daring to break through north of Vuhledar and south of Pokrovsk, bypassing both cities and hoping to penetrate into the Zaporozhye region to threaten the capital on the Dnieper, is a very bold move. The advantages are obvious: you put more territory at your disposal and pocket enemy troops or force them to abandon the terrain from which Ukraine threatened the south conquered by Russia at the beginning of the “special military operation”.
The consequences for Ukraine, as we have already said, would be terrible, since any attempt to recover Mariupol, Melitopol or even Crimea would remain practically a miracle. However, the risks are also immense: basically, Russia must hope that Ukraine has not protected this area well. and I have to flee in disarray. Besides, from their current positions to Velyka Novosilka there are 35 kilometers, which in this war is nothing. The capital Zaporizhia is 200 kilometers away.
If the offensive goes badly – and the Russians, in this sense, are taking very little risk, according to Soviet doctrine – it could lead to a retreat from their current positions. If it goes well, it drives the Ukrainians crazy, because it multiplies the number of hot spots to watch. To give the example of KurskSyrsky’s troops will never reach either the capital or the nuclear power plant, but they force Russia to protect both targets just in case. The same would happen with Velyka Novosilka and with Zaporizhia. The same Russia takes months to arrive or never arrives, but the forces Ukraine to divert resources. Resources which, as we have seen, are not exactly surplus.
