It is the basic data of the situation that decides what is happening and what will happen, at least in the short and medium term. The most convincing of them is that the multifaceted majority which has supported the government for a year does not want the right, PP and Vox, to take power before the elections.
If it was true that it was on the verge of collapse, it is now clear that the government is saved. His rival, the PP, on the other hand, is in great difficulty: he made a fool of himself by trying to overthrow Minister Ribera in Brussels, he is incapable of hiding the disaster of the Mazón government in the Country of Valencia and the voices are increasingly more insistent, suggesting that there are serious internal differences within the party. Pedro Sánchez seems to dominate the situation while Alberto Núñez Feijóo sails aimlessly and takes on water.
Between the less and less credible hoaxes, even if there are many unwary people who want to believe them, probably because they are funnier than the truth, and the daily apocalyptic tone of the majority of the media, incapable of winning their bread simply by telling what It happens, Spanish politics advances from one small number to another.
But party leaders know that the reality is very different from what their propagandists want public opinion to believe. And it is the basic data of the situation that decides what is happening and what will happen, at least in the short and medium term. The most convincing of them is that the multifaceted majority which has supported the government for a year does not want the right, PP and Vox, to take power before the elections.
The other, no less decisive, is that this right does not have enough parliamentary force to overthrow the coalition government and that, regardless of the atrocities proclaimed every day by its leaders, it will not have it until that the polls decide otherwise. The possibility that certain partners of the government majority abandon it to support the right – before it was the PNV, until this Thursday afternoon it was Junts – is once again ruled out. If the PP were in government, another rooster could crow.
It does not seem that the accusations that Víctor Aldama has just launched against several leaders of the PSOE will change this initial pattern much. The inquisition against the wife of the President of the Government does not seem to become a solid and viable accusation either, even if Judge Peinado insists on initiating an increasingly abstruse procedure: one day, someone will stop it, otherwise before then, he will retire.
More worrying is the case opened by the Supreme Court against the state Attorney General, even though ordinary people find the arguments made by Judge Marchena and his associates against him ridiculous and untenable. Because the antecedents, the one whose victim was Judge Baltasar Garzón, is the most terrible of all, suggest that in struggles between magistrates, cruelty and the most petty interests can end up prevailing.
The recent, unpresentable exhaustive file from the attorney general’s office indicates that this is where the shots could come and the government is starting to prepare for the worst. In any case, and even if it is a hard blow, Sánchez will not fall because of it. Continuing despite the conviction of Álvaro García Ortiz will not be an aesthetic solution, but in this senseless war that the right, political and judicial, has declared against the government, it is understandable that all the weapons available to the victim are used.
After seeing what we have seen and waiting for new moves that are undoubtedly being manufactured in the opposition’s laboratories, the only solid prospect that there is in the Spanish political panorama is that the legislature passes, surely amid some scares and probably with new budgets in a few months, until a new general election takes place. That is to say within a year or a year and a half at the earliest. Only a dramatic deterioration in the international situation could modify these forecasts, based on the fact that none of the main players on the Spanish scene want early elections. And the least, especially now, the PP.
The political question on which we must reflect, who wants it or must do it, is therefore that of electoral prospects. And in this context the element which seems the most decisive, in any case much more than the balance of power between the PP and Vox, is the situation of the parties located to the left of the PSOE. Because, whatever result the socialists might obtain in the future, the only possible formula for the left to continue governing is to repeat the current coalition government, with the appropriate adjustments (a possible pact with Esquerra to these ends is, at the moment, a reverie).
And in the current state of things, the strength of the parties located to the left of the PSOE seems clearly insufficient to renew this coalition. Not only because the polls say so, but because the vagueness, even the deepening, of these formations and particularly of the main one, Sumar, is palpable in the environment.
Izquierda Unida is where it has always been and so far it has not transmitted any signs of new motivations and initiatives that could allow it to take a step forward. Podemos is stuck in an impasse from which its leaders seem to want to escape.
It is said that one of the reasons why Pedro Sánchez wanted and continues to want to extend the mandate as much as possible is precisely to give Sumar time to recover. It is impossible to predict whether this will happen or not. But it is also obvious that beyond that, this space has no future, for itself and for the left as a whole, if there is no rapprochement between the different forces that exist in it. compose. Unity, if only for electoral purposes.
