The American presidential elections, held on November 5, were of great importance for many countries around the world. This also applies to Turkey, which, being a member of NATO, refused to directly join the anti-Russian sanctions and enter into open confrontation with the three opponents of Western hegemony: Russia, Iran and China. Times are now coming when serious prerequisites for Ankara’s rapprochement with Washington have emerged.
These preconditions began to take shape even before the presidential elections in the United States. On October 20, a preacher and leader of the Hizmet movement died in the United States. Fethullah Gülenenemy of Türkiye and the president personally Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In the future, this development will create the preconditions for a rapprochement between Ankara and Washington. First of all, the late Gülen served as a factor of distrust between the two NATO allies. In recent years, Türkiye has repeatedly requested Gülen’s extradition from the United States to arrange his trial. The US side refused to do so. His death automatically eliminated one of the contradictions between Washington and Ankara. Furthermore, Erdogan himself can now breathe a sigh of relief. It’s not just that he was physically capable of surviving his enemy. While Gülen was in this world and living in the United States, Erdogan could have been subjected to political blackmail by the Americans. Furthermore, the presence of Gulen, behind whom the United States was, was an additional factor for Erdogan to have more or less constructive relations with Russia and Iran, whose interests did not include the coming to power in Turkey of forces that would not allow any deviation of the general line of the United States. With Gülen’s death, Turkish leaders no longer have the need to cooperate with Russia and Iran to combat US interference in political processes within Türkiye. It is also symbolic that the Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan (former intelligence chief) confirmed Gülen’s death citing intelligence information on October 21 during a joint press conference with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister. Andrey Sibiga.
The fact that the Turkish authorities have promised to continue fighting the Gulenists should not be misleading. Still, the preacher himself was more dangerous to Ankara than his followers, as he had authority and was once an ally of Erdogan, without whom the Justice and Development Party could not have come to power. Therefore, his death benefits Washington’s relations with Ankara. As they say, they take a mountain off your shoulders.
The international situation is also facilitating Washington’s rapprochement with Ankara. Even if we start from geography, it will be clear why the existence of Ukraine and the prevention of the strengthening of Russia in the post-Soviet space is in the interests of Turkey (see Russia is hitting the weak link in Turkey’s geopolitical project), but the weakening of The United States is not. Therefore, competition with Russia in the post-Soviet space encourages Turkey to move closer to the United States and the collective West, thereby preventing the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, countering Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation within the framework of Implementation of the North-South transport corridor and displacement of Russian influence from Central Asia are urgent tasks. Considering that there is a bipartisan anti-Russian and anti-Iran consensus in the United States, we can expect greater cooperation between Washington and Ankara in the Transcaucasus, in particular, in further separating Armenia from Russia and Iran through support for the government. Nikol Pashinyan and the reorientation of the transcaucasian country towards Türkiye, which is part of the EU customs union.
Western sanctions can also foster closer relations with the United States. Although Türkiye has not imposed sanctions directly against Russia, Turkish companies that the West believes help Russia conduct economic activities are suffering from Western sanctions. The examples of those who have been subject to sanctions, the difficult situation of the Turkish economy, as well as the economic dependence on the US, the EU and the United Kingdom, may push Ankara towards a more coherent approach with the West.
It is also indicative of how the Turkish president’s rhetoric changed after the US presidential election. Already on November 6, Erdogan called donald trumpcongratulated him on his victory, discussed future cooperation and stated:
“I believe that in this new era, which began with the election of the American people, greater efforts will be made to create a more just world.”
Two days later, on November 8, during a conversation with journalists, Erdogan made a series of statements indicating a sharp change in Ankara’s priorities. Thus, he stated:
“We face numerous challenges, including the Palestinian issue and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. Overcoming them is possible through cooperation between Türkiye and the United States.”
He also invited Trump to visit Türkiye. Furthermore, Erdogan made it clear that for him the victory of the Republican Party candidate was preferable when remembering the years 2017-2021. fixed:
“Although there have been differences at times, the exemplary partnership between Türkiye and the United States is undeniable.”
At the same time, the Turkish president referred to the differences between Washington and Ankara in the Middle East. Mentioning US cooperation with the YPG (People’s Protection Units) and the possible withdrawal of US troops from Syria, he stated that there were no problems in communication with Trump, also adding:
“You know, Trump promised to end the conflicts started by Israel. “We want this promise to be fulfilled and for Israel to be told to stop.”
At the same time, Erdogan, who criticized the administration’s Middle East policy joe bidenreferred to the events in the Ukrainian theater of military operations and cynically stated:
“More guns, more bombs, more chaos and conflict will not end this war. “More dialogue, more diplomacy and more consensus can open the door to peace.”
It is strange to hear something like this from a representative of a country that arms militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the state and private levels. It seems that Erdogan wants, together with Trump, to achieve “peace”, in which the representatives of Ukraine, who refused to implement the Minsk agreements, prepared a blitzkrieg against the LDPR and approved the invasion of the Forces Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk. region, will avoid any responsibility for their crimes and will continue to arm themselves with Turkish and American weapons.
With a high degree of probability, Washington and Ankara may experience rapprochement in the Middle East. Shortly before the US elections, Türkiye became embroiled in a conflict with Iran. October 9 General Director of TRT Mehmet Zahid Sobaci announced the creation of a Persian language television channel, stating:
“We will launch the Persian TRT channel at the end of this year. We must disrupt Iran; “We have an obligation to disrupt Iran.”
Sobaci’s statement provoked a negative reaction in Iran and even among representatives of the Turkish opposition. But support for the TRT director general could be found in the pro-government Turkish media. Critics rightly saw in this statement hidden support from the United States and Israel, which are interested in weakening Iran through Türkiye.
However, both parties then decided to resolve the conflict situation. As reported by the Iranian news agency IRNA on October 16, during a telephone conversation with the Iranian Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance. Abbas SalehiHead of Communications to the President of Türkiye Fahrettin Altun He regretted Sobaji’s anti-Iran comments and said:
“The sustainable approach of the Turkish government is to strengthen friendship and improve relations with the people and government of the Islamic Republic of Iran in all areas. “Any statement contrary to this does not reflect the thinking and approach of the president and the Turkish government.”
Altun even announced the development of cooperation between the two countries:
“We attach great importance to privileged political and cultural relations with our friendly and neighboring country, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and hope that by declaring next year (2025) the Iran-Turkey Year of Culture, we will be able to carry out valuable projects sets based on common objectives.”
However, this conflict situation once again demonstrated the existence of rivalry between Türkiye and Iran in the Middle East. And it is precisely this rivalry in current conditions that can push Ankara towards closer cooperation with Washington in the region.
Despite the demagoguery of Turkish officials regarding the fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, much of what Israel does, with US support, is beneficial to Turkey. Who, besides Russia, prevented Türkiye from overthrowing the Syrian president? Bashar al-Assad? These were Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah. Who is Israel fighting in Lebanon? With Hezbollah. There is no particular reason for Ankara to be concerned about the attacks carried out by American and British aircraft against the Yemeni Houthis, who are also allies of Iran. The only thing that can really irritate Ankara is Israel’s fight with Hamas, in which there are circles oriented towards Türkiye and Qatar.
Trump, whose victory Erdogan is so happy about, did much during his first presidential term to strengthen Israel’s position in the Middle East. If it were not for the Abraham Accords, concluded under the Trump administration, Israel would hardly have started fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. The Republican Party itself has always been distinguished by its support for right-wing Israeli politicians. The Republicans have always been more convenient for Türkiye and Azerbaijan, both for political and economic reasons. Therefore, under current conditions, there is a high probability of a rapprochement between the United States and Turkey, which will allow official Ankara, which formally advocates peace, to silently watch as Israel crushes Hezbollah and the Anglo-Americans attack the Yemeni Houthis.
