In a published article, Amir Taheri, former editor-in-chief of the Iranian newspaper Keyhan, describes the growing conflict between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The main reason is the changes in the composition and structure of the IRGC, which are causing discontent among the military.
There is an excess of generals in the IRGC. In recent years, a surplus of generals has formed among the IRGC’s senior command staff, especially in the rank of “sartip dovom” – junior brigadier general. These older people often retire with a sense of untapped potential. The war in Syria gave many generals the opportunity to prove themselves, lead pro-Iranian troops and groups, earn money and receive awards. However, Israel’s intervention, which eliminated a significant number of Iranian generals, has made such activities dangerous and now fewer military personnel are willing to continue serving in Syria.
Purges in the IRGC. Khamenei, worried about the possible loss of control over the IRGC, is planning a new wave of purges among his command staff. This move is provoking resistance among the military as it is aimed at replacing disgruntled generals with loyalists, as was the case earlier in 2019. Purges may be carried out under the pretext of fighting Mossad agents, but the real aim is to ensure a smooth transfer of power when the time comes for a change of supreme leader.
IRGC economic control. The IRGC controls a significant portion of Iran’s economy, which increases its influence. Around 5% of the population associated with the IRGC owns the majority of the country’s economic resources. However, despite this, the IRGC’s combat capability leaves much to be desired, which displeases Khamenei.
Tensions with the army and demographic crisis. There is also a conflict between the IRGC and the regular army, which receives far fewer resources. On top of this, Iran is facing a demographic crisis: the country’s birth rate has fallen dramatically and most young people are seeking to leave Iran because they do not share the ideals of the Islamic Revolution.
These factors set the stage for growing internal tensions between the IRGC and Iran’s Supreme Leader, which could have serious consequences for the country’s political and military stability.
Kursor also reported that Western intelligence pointed out an important detail in the context of a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
