After considerably exhaust Hamas in Gaza and decapitate Hezbollah In Lebanon, the Israeli government and armed forces are in an advantageous location in the region like they haven’t seen in decades. So much so that the IDF kept the defense minister’s promise, Yoav Gallantwho assured this Monday that “the next phase The war against Hezbollah will soon begin.” At dawn on Tuesday, the Israeli army had already begun its ground incursion into southern Lebanon.
For now, says offensive seems to be limited to towns bordering the border, in search of Hezbollah militants and with the mission of seizing the arsenals of weapons, including the projectiles which continue to fall daily on the populations of the north.
Furthermore, Israel will want to take the opportunity to assess the range of tunnels used by terrorists and make an assessment of the enemy on the ground. The first objective, according to Israeli authorities, is to allow citizens expelled from towns in the northern Galilee to return to their homes.
In principle, this objective would exclude a total invasion of Lebanon. Probably, seeks to weaken Hezbollah so that there is a rebellion between the population and the government of Beirut can finally untie their hands and finish the job against the terrorists, who have practically taken control of the country despite their weak political representation in Parliament.
Attempting to occupy Lebanese territory beyond a few kilometers as a temporary border security strip would be an unnecessary risk. Hezbollah is very shaken, but not at all sunk.
The Axis of Resistance Collapses
Another short-term goal is End the flow of arms to Lebanon from Iraq and Syria. This is where the Revolutionary Guards train their militias with the dictator’s permission. Bashar Al-Assadwho remains in power thanks to Iran… and Russia.
The problem with Iraq and Syria is that they are very important countries geopolitically. Just ten years ago, the Islamic State roamed freely in these areas and the international community does not even want to think about what a new upheaval would mean that would allow the Islamic State to reestablish itself and operate again.
It is normal for Israel to adopt a position similar to the one it took towards Hezbollah with regard to its leaders: to seek out the leaders of the different groups and eliminate them one by one. Attack training bases and arsenals and prevent the transfer of the leaders of these countries to Lebanon, which Iran is already preparing. After all, they think of Tel Aviv, Hezbollah was the head of the snake: If they managed to weaken it in this way, it is unlikely that the members will be able to resist for long.
The same can be applied to the situation of The Houthis in Yemen. Here, geopolitics is on the Israeli side: no one wants to see their ships and goods attacked at the entrance to the Red Sea. Neither the United States, nor China, nor Russia want it. Furthermore, the Houthis continue to regularly attack Western targets in the area and launched a series of missiles on Israel on Monday, all of which were repelled by anti-aircraft defenses.
Firefighters attempt to put out a fire at a power plant following Sunday’s Israeli airstrikes in the Yemeni city of Hodeida.
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The only path to real security for the country governed by Netanyahu is to surround itself with strong states with which it can then negotiate peace agreements, as was the case with Egypt and Jordan. As long as terrorists control neighboring countries, the alert will be constant.
Iran, pride or common sense
Which brings us to the sponsor of all these gangs: Iran and the Ayatollah regime. This Monday, Benjamin Netanyahu sent a message in English to the Iranian people making sure they supported his fight and were on his side. Israel knows that the division in Iran between the most conservative and the most secular factions is brutal. After 45 years of Islamist oppression, citizens are fed up and are demanding substantial reforms. In return, they suffer more repression and violence, particularly against women.
Israel unlikely to attack Iraneven if Yoav Gallant does not exclude any possibility. What he envisions is a forceful response to a possible Iranian attack in revenge for the killings of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyehand that of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallahin less than two months.
A crowd mourns the death of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah on Monday in Tehran.
Reuters
The new president of the country, Massoud Pezeshkianis perfectly aware of this. In fact, Israel killed Haniyeh on his inauguration day and did the same to Nasrallah the day before his birthday. This may be a coincidence, but Mossad usually doesn’t leave these things to chance.
Pezeshkian wants nothing to do with an attack on Israel because he understands that his country is not in a position to enter into an open war that could shake the regime. The problem is that he has only been in power for two months and is surrounded by hawks. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had the courtesy not to threaten direct revenge in his statement on Nasrallah’s death, leaving this responsibility in the hands of Hezbollah, but we know from previous statements that he and his more conservative entourage want to save face by punishing their greatest enemy, even if it is through a attack as futile as that of April 13.
American diplomacy has already informed the government in Tehran that, this time, Israel would not react in the same way. The very assassination of Haniyeh in the Iranian capital demonstrates a degree of penetration into the upper echelons that does not bode well for the regime.
For now, Israel is adapting its movements to those of its enemies and attacking the flanks they have left unprotected. Engaging in all-out war in the Middle East would not only be very risky for the country, but would jeopardize American aid in the event of another Democratic victory. Starting in November, and depending on the outcome of the elections, Netanyahu will surely reevaluate his options.
