It was not necessary to consult a shaman to know nine months ago, when Pedro Sánchez was sworn in as president, that the government was going to have a hard time achieving a minimum of stability in the legislature. The PSOE sacrificed several red lines to keep its secretary general in the Moncloa Palace, despite its electoral defeat, but the promised tranquility – in exchange, among other things, for an amnesty for the crimes of the “process” – is not reaching Congress. What the socialists did not expect was that it would be a former party colleague, José Luis Ábalos, who would make their situation even more precarious.
With the first year of the legislature already over and the amnesty for those responsible for the attempted secession in Catalonia in force, parliamentary alliances are not only not consolidating, but are breaking up amid mistrust and deep ideological differences. On Tuesday, in the Permanent Deputation of Congress – the body that meets outside of working hours – the government avoided several parliamentary defeats simply because the calculation is different from that of the plenary. There, for example, the sum of PP, Vox and Junts would have been enough to force Sánchez to appear on the immigration crisis and the flight of Carles Puigdemont.
The seven votes of the Junts were essential to the investiture of the socialist, with the amnesty as the main payment, but they continue to be so now because they hold the key that guarantees the opposition a blocking majority against the government. The fugitive’s party demands that the legal oblivion of the trial be applied to Puigdemont, but the Supreme Court excludes it in case of embezzlement.
The unresolved Junts puzzle, which has already led Congress to reject the spending ceiling proposed by the government in July – an essential step in presenting the general state budgets – is joined by others such as Podemos and the former socialist Ábalos. Sánchez’s majority is so tight that the former minister’s decision could mean that he does not even have a guaranteed simple majority (more yes than no) in the votes where the neo-convergents abstain. If Junts votes directly like PP and Vox, the government has nothing to do.
Question of numbers
To the 147 deputies of the Executive (120 from the PSOE and 27 from Sumar), we must add the seven from the ERC, the six from Bildu and the five from the PNV. These three parties saved Sánchez from the scene of the Permanent Deputation and currently enjoy the support that he guarantees, although the Republicans link that this continues to be the case with the realization of the fiscal pact agreed to invest Salvador Illa as “president”. of the Generalitat. To these 165 votes, we can add the four from Podemos – although those of Ione Belarra also establish their own profile -, that of the BNG and that of the Canarian Coalition. In total, 171 deputies.
Draw
in number of places
Source: own development /ABC
Initial equality in number of seats
Source: own development /ABC
The problem facing the government is that until now, those 171 votes were 172, because even though Ábalos had made the jump to the Mixed Group – expelled from the PSOE for his possible responsibility derived from the Koldo affair – he had committed to maintaining the discipline of the socialist group. The situation has changed, given that in the internal audit carried out at the Ministry of Transport, under the orders of Óscar Puente, Ábalos is accused of having ordered the duplication of the purchase of masks from the plot of his former advisor. And this, in a scenario where Junts abstains, leaves the majority that supports the government with the same 171 seats that the PP, Vox and UPN have together.
The first section of Article 88 of the “Rules of the Congress” states: “In the event of a tie in a vote, a second vote will be held and, if the tie persists, the vote will be suspended for the period deemed reasonable by the Presidency. After this period, the vote will be repeated and, in the event of a new tie, the opinion, article, amendment, individual vote or proposal in question will be deemed rejected. In other words, in the areas where the PP, Vox and UPN oppose the Executive, the latter will be condemned to defeat only if Junts and Ábalos abstain at the same time.
The PSOE spokesman in the Senate, Juan Espadas, clung to an act of faith towards his former colleague this Thursday in an interview with RNE and affirmed that he would vote for “the general interest of the Spanish people”. Espadas reminded Junts that he had “a signed agreement” with the PSOE and that to achieve it, it had to be done through the budgets, and he stated that “the majority that supports the progressive government” will be the first to speak. According to him, the Executive has the responsibility of presenting the accounts and it will do so, but from there, he transferred this same responsibility to the Cortes Generales.
Governing without accountability?
Government sources this week opened the door to extending the budgets for the second consecutive time and to continue governing without accounts, without anticipating the elections, although this is an unusual scenario. Sánchez himself dissolved the Cortés in 2019 when the ERC caused its accounts to fall, but now, after losing the elections to Alberto Núñez Feijóo and with judicial investigations affecting his closest environment, the context is different.
The situation could become even more complicated if Podemos ends up expressing its growing discontent with the government in the votes. The Belarras already overturned in January a royal decree-law by Yolanda Díaz for the reform of unemployment benefits, but on Tuesday, in the Permanent Deputation, they only abstained on two issues on which they were very critical: Sánchez’s management of immigration and the railway company of Minister Óscar Puente. Two yes votes from Podemos would have led both to present themselves to Congress this week – Puente did so this Thursday at his own request – forced by the opposition.
Meanwhile, the Popular Party is taking advantage of its absolute majority in the Senate to force the Government to give the Territorial Chamber the explanations that it avoids giving to Congress. The first will be the Vice President and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, who will have to appear next Wednesday in an emergency plenary session to report on the agreement reached with ERC for the financing of Catalonia.
If Congress “closes,” the Senate will become “the center of the debate,” warned the spokesperson for the Popular Group in the Upper House, Alicia García. For now, the head of the Public Treasury will have to explain the details of the agreement that allowed Illa’s investiture “in the face of the absolute disinformation of the Government and the silence between the Executive and the ERC,” the PP says.
